The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Man it really is tough to ignore stocks here which just keep rallying hard. Yesterday we saw the SPX and NDQ close the day 1.2% higher which is quite an astonishing return given how much we are up already this week. Futures are also pointing higher this morning up 0.2% on SPX and 0.4% on NDQ...don't underestimate illiquid summer Fridays! On the flip side interest rates have drifted higher but stocks of course don't seem to care, the curve is currently at 470/394/373/384bps across 2/5/10/30y. Nothing more to add on this front other than reiterating that we have 2 quite weeks of data in the middle of summer, it's gonna be boring and even though I think stocks look toppy here it's tough to fade momentum.
CRYPTO - We saw a bit of a reprieve yesterday which now sees BTC back to 25.5K and ETH to 1670. It would seem my leveraged gamble is now in the black; at this point in time I feel like we are due some kind of a short squeeze still and my gut is majors can go higher into the weekend so I'm going to ride out that gamble for now. It's still interesting to see ETH be a big laggard in the past couple of days even vs many altcoins which seem to have stabilised, granted they are down 20-30% in a week. We saw bitcoin dominance climb even higher yesterday to 49.5% which puts it at new 1Y highs. It's interesting to see the historical price action there. At the end of 2020 BTC dominance was 70%, and it fell to as low as 40% during the 2021 bull market as we had an "alt season". Since then, we've not got close to anywhere near 70% and we're actually now at the highest point at 49.5% since the end of 2020. My explanation for that is that the crypto market has just grown massively in the last 2-3 years. As we see more coins come that have value, it lowers bitcoin's dominance.
NFTs - Another 36M of marketplace volumes yesterday so continued elevated volumes which once again seems to be coming from artblocks. We saw another autoglyph sell for 175ETH, which marks a 20ETH uptick since the last sale and now puts the floor at 199ETH. Of course the big headlines were the Sotheby's sales where we saw the Goose sell for $6.2m, so HIGHER than the $5.8m Starry Night Capital paid for it which is remarkable given what the market has done. There were a few other large sales including a couple of $600k+ Fidenza sales and even a $600k+ Chromie Squiggle sale. The big question on everyone's lips is will this trigger a run on generative art, originally I thought so and my initial view was that the Sotheby's sale would mark the bottom, except the bottom was actually a few weeks before the sale. I think we will see more interest in gen art but the reality is...are there really a lot of buyers of this stuff out there at these levels? I'm yet to be convinced there and despite being initially excited I fear reality may set over the next few days. I hope I'm wrong!
Degenz - We're releasing a new set of reports this week on Matt DesLauries, Louis Vuitton, Famous Fox Federation, Luppy Club and Kubz by Keungz. Reports are available to Pro subscribers on https://degenz.finance/Reports, and Degenz Code holders get unlimited access (https://opensea.io/collection/degenzcode). GL today and touch some grass this weekend!
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