The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - We had a pretty benign close yesterday with stocks ending the day mostly unchanged, we're seeing some strength in futures this morning with both SPX and NDQ up 0.9%. I think this sustained strength in equities is pretty impressive, does feel like a sentiment change but only future data will tell us if that is wise or not. Interest rates have been a bit weak recently and we continue to leak higher which puts the curve at 450/498/379/390bps on 2/5/10/30y. It's worth noting that 2s10s is massively inverted here, the most it has been for multiple years. A classic sign of a recession looming. Oil continues its weakness falling once again below $80. Not really much more to add here but we've seen some relatively good stability in macro land now for the past few days.
CRYPTO - After yesterday's weakness we've seen a reasonable bounce which results in BTC at 16.8K and ETH back above 1200. Something that is causing concern right now here is Digital Currency Group which is the parent company for Grayscale and also Genesis. Apparently they're trying to fund raise $1bn at the DCG level given what happened with Genesis but there is some confusion as to whether there is any leakage to other parts of the businesses.
If Grayscale is in trouble it's pretty concerning, given they hold $6bn of BTC and $3bn of ETH and this could potentially cause big selling pressure if Grayscale itself ever becomes insolvent. It seems to me this is not a likely scenario, but compared to FTX, this would obviously cause a lot of actual technical selling pressure and I think something to keep tabs on and watch out for.
NFTs - There continues to be a lot of good volume in NFTs with BAYC posting another 740E day while maintaining a floor of 62E. Elsewhere most floor prices seem mostly unchanged to a small amount higher while listings are mostly unchanged. Don't really have a tonne more to add here on NFTs - there are some interesting new projects launching but with comparatively high mint prices so will be a good test to see how they fare. Have a good weekend and touch some grass.