The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A quiet start to equities which are up about 0.2% today on both SPX and NDQ. It is quite a spectacle to watch this move higher in interest rates tbh with the curve now at a whopping 432/376/370/395bps across 2/5/10/30y which is insane, considering we were at like 3.7% on 2Y just a few weeks ago. I can't quite put my finger on what is specifically causing this sell-off in yields...the online press seems to just mention very generic things and some potential tertiary Fed comments yesterday but my guess is there's something a lot more technical that's causing this move. It's interesting because equities actually seem completely unfazed by it and have been pretty robust this week. There also doesn't appear to be a specific near term catalyst or datapoint either. So once again I think that move is pretty technical.
CRYPTO - Rather interestingly crypto doesn't seem to be batting much of an eyelid to the move in rates either (probably because NDQ has been strong) and we are still at 26.9K on BTC and around 1815 on ETH, a touch weaker than yesterday but still well within this recent range we've been seeing for a couple of weeks now. Altcoins have barely moved while shitcoins appear to be heading lower each day which seems to be proving the thesis that this was just another "meta" rather than the start of a new cycle. I still think there is some probability left that we see a shitcoin summer but it's tough when you have a lot of people starting to lose money. We saw the $PSYOP contract finally launch yesterday but it appears only 1.5% of the airdrop tokens have been distributed with Ben still holding about 95% of the supply. Given the lack of supply, it appears that the market cap has been manipulated to around $500-600m and IMO that's being done intentionally before the supply is drip-fed or slowly distributed to holders.
NFTs - Just under $30m of volume in the last 24H and price action is rather benign with most things losing a little it of steam. Pudgy Penguins saw good volume and rose by 2% to an FP of 4.9ETH after they officially launched their toys on Amazon and allegedly grossed $500k in sales in the first couple of days. It's interesting to see a web3-native company take a more traditional route; personally I like the idea of alternative revenue streams but certainly the jury will be out if they can benefit the NFT itself. IMO it's a brand building exercise that can definitely work, especially given Pudgies have such a loyal following. Elsewhere watch out for the first round of Sotheby's auctions that end today which I believe include two fidenzas, a punk and an autoglyph, the bids for all of those actually look pretty decent which once again tells me there is indeed some capital that is sidelined for this stuff. Asides from that, still kind of quiet in NFTs.
GL today!
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