The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
**MACRO** - Right well yesterday we saw equities close marginally lower on SPX and marginally higher on NDQ as most of the gains were eroded. Interest rates look like they've had a little rally further which now puts us at 486/425/411/422bps across 2/5/10/30y. IDK this for a fact but it feels like the market really bought into the higher-for-longer narrative and positioning in treasuries is short, it feels like the pain move here would be for a big interest rate rally should payrolls today come in below expectations and we see signs of the Fed getting a little dovish. I also think treasury shorts were hoping for some hawkishness out of Jackson Hole but it ended up being mostly a nothing burger. The expectation for today's number is 170k vs last month's 187k. If we come in materially lower I would expect a big interest rate rally and maybe stocks small up, but of course the impact on equities is tough to judge given people will start to think about a recession...altho IMO we are very far away from that and the Fed has plenty of time to adjust. It will be interesting to see how markets react if the number comes in higher, my guess is that interest rates sell off but stocks rally or are unchanged; remember the NDQ strength has come from the AI boom rather than prospect of lower rates and such I think that equities "don't mind" labour market strength. The volatility right now feels like it's in rates rather than stocks.
**CRYPTO** - Well unsurprisingly we've now given up all the gains we saw since the SEC/Grayscale headline with BTC back down to 26k and ETH down to 1644. This is the longest period of crypto "underperformance" vs actually good fundamental news that I can remember and I still can't help but think there's gonna be one day where we just become up only. It's a very long consolidation period but once it's over I do believe there are dramatic gains to be made, I just don't know when it's over or how much lower we can drift, which means best strategy is just to DCA here still. It is worth noting that the SEC delayed its decision on spot BTC ETF applications from most of the big guys yesterday which probably explains the full retrace. The delay allows the SEC an additional 45 days to approve, deny or delay the BlackRock application again, which means the next deadline would be October 17th. This is going to be the new game, build up of speculation into each deadline until eventually there is an actual decision rather than a delay. Once again, I find it very hard to think the SEC will be able to reject these applications after losing against Grayscale but further delays could well be expected. It has a total of 240 days from when it first begins official review, which was on 14th July, so the hard deadline would be Tuesday 11th March, just a few weeks before the next BTC halving in April 2024. NGL tbh I woke up feeling extremely bullish on crypto...idk about short term price actions but I think 2024 is going to be special. Check out this tweet:
https://twitter.com/osf_rekt/status/1697550364742967308?s=20
**NFTs** - So it looks like recent gains have mostly held for pfp projects, maybe some slight decline here or there but for now we have certainly formed a local (and maybe global) bottom despite volumes still being so low. We talk a lot about pfp projects and we talk a lot about how people have gotten rekt on NFTs this year but I think it's important to note the art market seriously continues to thrive. Refik Anadol's Winds of Yawanawa sit at a 7.49ETH floor after a $2.5k ETH mint just 20 days ago while Sam Spratt's Monument Game Player edition sits at a 5.99ETH floor from a 3ETH mint, despite the game having been concluded. NFTs are certainly not dead, you just haven't been looking!
GL today