The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - We saw further red in equities yesterday with SPX down 0.7% but more worryingly NDQ down 2.3% as NFLX reported weak numbers and we finally saw a decent pullback in tech stocks. This was accompanied by a slight rise in interest rates which now sees 2Y back to 4.86%. Futures are showing some relief this morning up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. My guess is it will be a quiet Friday and we could potentially expect some risk off going into the FOMC next week given how much equities have rallied recently. There's only been one FOMC in the last 18 months or something where markets have come away bullish based on what Powell said. The last FOMC we got the message we could see higher rates for longer so that should be the base case going in here; I don't think anyone is really expecting them to say anything dovish, so there is a case to be made for an upside surprise too. I think many expect an additional hike too given the strong labour market data we've had but it IS worth noting payrolls came in below and of course inflation dropped off a cliff to 3%. But yeah...taking a step back here we've had a massive equity rally and we have a potential risk event next week so wouldn't be surprised to see things cool off a little.
CRYPTO - The most frustrating asset class rn! We failed to hold yesterday's rally and are back down to 29.8K on BTC and 1892 on ETH. Altcoins look like they've given up some steam but BTC dominance remains at the same level it's been for a while now at 49.8%, in fact it hit 49.7% overnight so it's definitely a case of BTC underperforming here which once again is further confirmation that there is a large BTC seller out there and while they may have got off a decent chunk of risk there's quite clearly more to go. I wonder if we see that seller(s) get more aggressive about that before the FOMC next week and as such I'm conscious of there being potential dips next week to add risk on and will make sure I'm ready for it. Atm crypto just feels like one of those moments back when you were single where you haven't gotten laid in ages and you're just chasing or waiting, many drunken nights out go by with slivers of hope but no success...and then suddenly bam one day it happens.
NFTs - Mixed price action today but it does look like most things are slightly in the red with Opepen edition leading the charge lower once again falling to a FP of 0.66ETH. It feels like that and Checks would have been good ones to range trade this year, it feels like when they get to like 0.3 they're a buy and when they get to 0.8 they're a sell - I'm sure lots of people have had that strategy and done well. Other than that I'm struggling to find things to write about in NFTs at the moment. We saw another large 1/1 sale this week as DeeKay Motion sold a 1/1 piece for 52.5ETH while there were two more Fidenza sales yesterday at 70ETH and 87.5ETH...so art/generative art still seems to be going strong...but yeah I think that's kind of it!
GL today and touch some grass this weekend.
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