The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm from Paris @everyone
MACRO - Traditional markets ended in the green yesterday with SPX up 0.5% and NDQ up 0.94%. Interest rates are relatively stable with 10Y currently at 3.9% but I'm definitely watching it like a hawk. It looks like we're off to a tougher start this morning with futures back down 0.5-0.7% as the market continues to ponder the FOMC minutes and weigh the risks of returning inflation. The next big data point we get is payrolls on Friday 3rd March, and we'll be hoping that the insane January number we saw was just a one-off (and ideally some revisions downwards).
CRYPTO - Seems to be holding in OK tbh with BTC at 23.8K and ETH at 1650. Altcoins seem to be mostly unchanged while some recent favourites such as $BLUR down about 5-10%. I'm finding it tough to make heads or tails of the crypto market right now. We've lost a lot of correlation to traditional markets, and we have these rumours of stable coin selling to buy ETH/BTC in the background too. It's hard to really judge where the next short term move is and when I am unsure I tend to revert to thinking we'll just go back in line with stocks, but it's tough to say that with any confidence atm. You're also at a point where a lot of altcoins have done 2-5x moves to start the year, and while I think the odds are that these gains are held, it does pose material downside risk from where we stand.
NFTs - A total of $82m traded in the last 24H which is a little bit lower than the day before, as Blur continues to maintain roughly a 70% market share. Most of the volume once again continues to be hot potatoes as farmers scramble to scrape the next $BLUR airdrop. The funny thing is everyone saw the size and value of the first drop and got FOMO and thus wanted to farm. These ambitions are predicated on the next airdrop actually having some value. Let me phrase that a different way, this only makes sense if $BLUR stays at current prices, but if $BLUR drops, say 60-70%, suddenly your airdrop isn't worth that much and you're in a tough spot if you've been trading for losses to farm (which a lot of people have). So farming right now is not only a play on getting the airdrop, it's also a play that the $BLUR token price stays elevated which in turn is a bet on the market in 2 months among a lot of other things. Personally, I'm not convinced most farmers have gone through this thought process, and I think given yesterday's activity
it puts NFTs in a rather precarious position. Tonight we have our Rekt in Paris event - looking forward to catching up with everyone today and make sure you read all the deets!