The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Well, it was another volatile session yesterday as we started the day with stocks surging back with a vengeance before losing steam and closing the day off the highs. Futures are lower this morning with SPX underperforming given an extended move lower once again in bank stocks. Deutsche Bank is now making headlines after CDS started blowing out which in turn seems to have caused an 11% plummet in the stock. Honestly it really still is not looking great for banks and I think some sort of an emergency Fed rate cut is not off the cards if things turn sour, but it probably won't be viewed positively, it will be viewed as "oh fuck shit is really hitting the fan in a bad way now". It's worth noting that interest rates are absolutely ripping and have reached YTD lows today, with the curve now at 362/327/330/361 across 2/5/10/30y. This will be in response to the continued banking turmoil and the market continues to just simply bet against Powell and the Fed.
CRYPTO - We saw quite a big surge randomly yesterday which since came back lower with stocks but it still puts BTC at 28K and ETH at 1786. The outperformance of crypto vs tradfi this year has been quite astounding and the dislocation trade simply keeps getting better. Indeed we continue to see narratives that are positive for crypto but we still have some kind of a "nuke" risk IMO if you see a big sell-off in risk assets so just be wary of that (although I think that would be quite an amazing dip to buy). We saw the new Arbitrum token drop yesterday and on the whole it's performed pretty well; anyone buying it at around $1 pre launch has made about 50% in the last 24H, at current levels it's at a $1.9bn undiluted market cap and $15bn fully diluted market cap.
NFTs - Truly a see of red on what continues to be worsening volume across the entire NFT space. Punks are down 19% to a floor of 61E, Apes are down to 58E, Azuki down to 12.7 and many more getting harmed in the cross fire. The drop in volumes to me tells me that Blur farmers are running out of liquidity or stopping out and I can only imagine many of them have racked up a lot of losses in attempting to farm; and they are sure hoping the next airdrop makes it worth it. At some point I think some of this stuff is going to be a good buy but in general I still feel cautious and I'm not quite sure that the time is yet now.
GL today and touch some grass this weekend!
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