The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
**MACRO** - Stocks had a rather grim day yesterday falling by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively on the SPX and NDQ with the hype and euphoria from the NVIDIA earnings getting faded pretty fast. Interest rates have stayed stable over the past 24H but seeing that 2Y level sit above 5% definitely makes me feel uneasy, but maybe that is the new normal. I think today we get the Jackson Hole speech from Powell, scheduled at 10.05AM ET. IMO the market expectation is that he is going to leave the door open for potentialy higher rates for a longer period of time...I personally think that is already baked in, it's just a questoin of how aggressive he is about delivering that message. This is definitely a macro risk factor today though and personally I think it's the reason why stocks sold off yesterday, there's a bit of fear going into today.
**CRYPTO** - Not much movement in majors with BTC sitting above 26K and ETH at 1650. The big mover has been $PEPE after the dev team transferred 4% of its supply to exchanges. It's unclear whether it's been sold or not though apparently if you look at the Binance and OKX exchanges it looks like it has. What's interesting is the price has dropped 20% alongside the open interest increasing by 30% and funding going positive, so there is a big short base in this now. IMO people shorting because "the dev team rugged" have a misunderstanding of how this works; it's bad that there is supply in the market at local lows, but this token doesn't need or require a dev team...it's the Pepe meme, it just is what it is no one is "building" anything. Indeed this drop has affected the rest of the "meme coin sector" with most things down about 30-50% and I think that is expected. Curious to see where things go from here but it does not change my personal thesis of $PEPE being able to rival $SHIB in the next bull run.
**NFTs** - With the recent carnage in memecoins it's incredible to see NFTs actually make a sustained bounce this morning with DeGods leading the charts up 22% to a floor price of 4.22ETH. MAYC is back above 5ETH and Azuki is up 10% to 4.45ETH. It's certainly an impressive bounce and one that I was not expecting given my commentary yesterday. There comes a point where something gets to a "terminal value" where no one else wants to sell it anymore and they don't get about the extra handful of ETH and would rather just hold....are we there yet? I don't know is the answer...we've been in like an 18month period of sustained declines and maybe by now anyone left is just here to be here and doesn't really give af about the price...that could certainly be a bull case but personally not strong enough for me to pile into NFTs beyond owning what I want to own. Watch this space though, will be interesting to see!
GL today