The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone better late than never
MACRO - Equities are ending the week in the green with the SPX and NDQ posting 0.8 and 0.7% gains on a week where tech companies generally produced decent earnings. Interest rates have progressed back higher with 2Y now back up to 4% but tbh I think most of these moves are just kind of redundant until we get the FOMC and labour market data next week. The FOMC will be 2-3rd May with the interest rate decision and press conferencing happening on the afternoon of the 3rd. Once again, the market expectation is for an additional 25bp hike, so I think what's more important is the commentary we get from JPOW. It's once again being shaped up for a big week and one that could define some of the narrative for the summer period.
CRYPTO - After yesterday's shenanigans price action today was benign with BTC and ETH losing some small steam to settle around 29.3K and just shy of 1900. SOL has been a big outperformer today rising by about 5-6% but other than that most alts seem to be lower in sympathy. It's interesting to see BTC dominance increase dramatically once again this week and we're back up to 48.7% having been as low as 47% just last week. I do think what's going on with FRC is once again bringing people back to the BTC bull thesis. Curious to see how crypto performs next week with macro, I feel like we should move with it but this year has been notorious for decoupling so let's see.
NFTs - We've had one of the lowest volume days in a while with just 29m trading across the market which like a 50-60% decline below the daily average we've been seeing for a while. This is of course a result of Blur farming coming to an end, or at least for season 2, and it'll be interesting to see what happens next after they tweeted it would be time to "shake things up" come 1st May. My gut is we see another season of farming but there will be different rules or multipliers for new features they bring out, which I expect to be trait-bidding or something like that. I would note that NFT price action over the last few days has been very flat and if farmers are incentivised in a less destructive way, we are perhaps setup to see a small bounce, it's just a question of how long and if something like that will last. Make sure you touch some grass this weekend because next week will be a big one.
GL!
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