The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Another robust day saw equities end 0.6% and 0.9% higher while interest rates continue to edge a tiny bit higher which puts 2Y at 4.14% and 10Y at 3.57%. Futures this morning are pretty much unchanged. Something to watch out for today is PCE. It's another measure of inflation and popularly touted by the media s the "Fed's preferred measure" although I'm not sure what that even really means tbh. Anyway, Last month the YoY figure came in at 4.7% and the expectations for this month are once again 4.7% which is somewhat of a sign that the downward trajectory in inflation seems to be shallowing out here. Despite that, the MoM increase is expected to be lower - so I do think we could see some vol around this and it's another datapoint that will give us a taste of how inflation is looking ahead of the data we have next week.
CRYPTO - What's interesting to me is BTC seems to have lost a bit of steam and has fallen back to 27.8K while eveverything else has held up ok. BTC dominance has dropped from recent highs of 48% just a couple of days ago back down to 47.2%. It's interesting to see that come as a result of BTC actually falling lower, I would expect that kind of move to happen after alts rally, so kinda weird to see alts hold up so well after that move. Even ETH is still hovering around 1800 which I think is pleasant to see. I'm not really sure what developments we're waiting for next on crypto, with ETH one thing you do have is the Shanghai upgrade which many fear will cause a big supply unlock of ETH for those that have been staking it. However, for the most part, ETH is pretty much unchanged in price or just a touch higher since that program started and there's an argument to say it's mostly OG-type people who probably don't sell. We'll see what happens but I think the rumours were that it would be launched at the end of March and indeed we are right about there now!
NFTs - It's another day of low volumes but also another day of floor prices holding steady and actually rising in many cases. It's difficult to extrapolate from just 2-3 days of data but it does appear that the slowdown in Blur farming has created a positive impact on NFT floor prices. This is obviously because a lot of these guys were de-risking and I'm curious to see some stats on that as to how much has been de-risked. I'm still on the skeptical side but there is an argument to say that we may have reached at least what could be a local bottom in the NFT market with many prices sitting there about 50-80% lower YTD. I still continue to think and believe that the projects with the strongest communities are the ones that will outlive this bear and survive, rather than the ones that have built up big roadmaps/expectations which they are now optically struggling to achieve (although I do think these things take time and you have to give them a chance, but of course NFT holders are impatient). We'll see what happens. One thing to note is there are definitely some bargains on "blue-chip art" out there IMO.
GL today and touch some grass this weekend!
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