The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Another soft day for equities yesterday which saw SPX and NDQ closing 1 and 2% lower respectively. We're seeing some small respite this morning with futures up 0.7% this morning. Interest rate still looking kinda ugly and remain elevated, 474/463/414/419bps on 2/5/10/30y, with 2Y in particular at the highs. The other thing that's not great is a decent spike in oil which sees WTI back above $90. Today we get payrolls for which the expectation is 200k, this comes after a 263k number for the month of September. That's quite a substantial drop (almost 25%), and I think we probably want this number to be as close to 200 or lower to be honest as we prob need more pressure on the Fed to think they are overdoing it in order for markets to react positively. I'm very curious to see how markets react if payrolls and inflation come in low, paired with what was a very hawkish Fed. It would make the next FOMC meeting a lot more interesting, but for now Powell is not really showing any signs of slowing down.
CRYPTO - Simply quire remarkable strength across the board in crypto with BTC holding above 20.5k, ETH almost at 1600. There's been another 20% move in MATIC which takes it to 1.1, the highest it's been in the last six months. This comes after Polygon secures a deal with Meta to allow for instagram support for NFT creators. I think a lot of value in crypto comes from intangible sources (think about meme coins for example). It's somewhat relatable to the idea of "goodwill" on a balance sheet, for example, you would tie some sort of "brand value" to Coca Cola that is an estimate, hard to quantify and very subjective. Bizdev does seem to be a strong way to generate and create value in crypto and of course NFTs, as it drives morale and gives an appearance of things "happening".
NFTs - Art gobblers have seen a huge decline in floor price which have dropped 40% to 8.8E. Chromie squiggles continue their ascent with 21 sales overnight and 401E of volume taking the floor to now 17ETH. It's another example of how OG-style art-focused projects have done well. In general, as I stare headachingly at my screen, it looks most floors are smalls up but a notable uptick in listings in a few projects. I will repeat what I said the other day, in that I think it's pretty solid that most floors have held in or are only down small with this recent rally in ETH which I think is an encouraging sign. The main "weakness" in the past week or so seems to be within the Yuga complex and associated staking delays.
Finally, thank you for everyone who came to The Rekt Show last night, especially those who travelled across the world to be there. It's one thing to see the energy of this community online, but it hits different to see everyone in the same building together having a good time and getting rekt! Have a great weekend everyone.
-OSF