The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
MACRO - Another solid day yesterday for stocks which saw a 0.4% and 0.7% move higher in SPX and NDQ. Futures are unchanged this morning while interest rates have edged a little bit higher. Worth noting that oil has stayed elevated at around the $80 mark. We get payrolls today at 8.30AM EST. It looks like consensus is 240k vs last month's 311k and it will be a crucial moment to see if the weakness shown in the BLS data is corroborated by payrolls. Wage inflation is also expected to drop while the unemployment rate is expected to stay the same. IMO when we had the post BLS data rally earlier this week it's pretty clear now what the market wants to see and any number that's close to consensus, or indeed below will cause a solid rally. Of course, it feels like an age since we last saw payrolls come in under guidance. Let's see what happens - I would say expect some vol but it's also Good Friday so a lot of the market will be out; tbh that prob makes for illiquid markets and thus more potential price vol.
CRYPTO - BTC at 27.9K and ETH at 1856...off the week's highs by some way but I gotta think for at least today we should regain some correlation with macro. To me, of all the things crypto seems correlated to, it's interest rates. I'm going to run some stats on that at some point when I have time because IMO that seems to be the biggest mover of prices at least from my seat, albeit in an anecdotal fashion. I don't have a tonne more to addd here but I am quietly expecting some form of movement today.
NFTs - One of the lowest volume days for a while which saw just $48m trade across the marketplace yesterday. The most topical project is once again Nakamigos which pumped by a whopping 60% in the last 24H to climb to a price of 0.82ETH, which I think is back to the highs it posted a few days ago. Have to say I'm quite impressed with that bounceback and I did have it somewhat written off as something that would trend to zero. Elsewhere most projects are a bit meh and are +/-5% in price moves. Volumes are substantially lower across the board compared to 2-3 weeks ago and I think it's all gotten rather dicey for $BLUR farmers who are all hoping the price holds up for the next airdrop, but tbh the next airdrop entails more supply that people will look to sell so I'm not sure that's a positive event and it feels like it may be a net loss for many.
GL today and have a great Easter weekend.