The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A soft close yesterday with stocks ending the day about 1% lower on SPX and NDQ. Futures are expectedly quiet this morning ahead of today's payrolls number, to be released at 8.30AM EST. Consensus is that 250K jobs were added for the month of September, down from 315K the previous month. It's a bit of a weird on in that we kind of want data to be bad because it puts pressure on the fed to be less hawkish, but taking a step back I'm not sure that's like a viable long-term solution...can we really keep going through this never ending cycle of jacking and slashing interest rates in such a volatile fashion in a bid to temper the economy? Idk maybe. One thing for certain it does seem apparent that we're going to enter into a relatively deep global recession next year. A lot of people I've spoken to seem to be buying the view of a Q4 pump/rally if inflation is lower/data worse, followed by a bleak 2023 on the realisation that things will actually be pretty grim. I do still believe in the theory that stocks are a reflection of future expectation and I think the "bottom" will be in during a recession, after which point we could start to see risk assets rally once the Fed has pivoted, even while the world is in a dark place. Problem is I don't think we are there yet, we've been wanting to see the Fed get aggressive for a long time to induce that and it's only just started to happen, so I think maybe this timeline could be relatively lengthy.
CRYPTO - BTC still lingering around 20k and ETH at around 1350. I'm kind of getting bored of commentating on a lack of volatility but given what I said above feels like maybe I should be careful what I wish for lol! I think if I owned a load of equities I'd be inclined to sell it here, or into any Q4 rally we see. Upside/downside doesn't seem that great to me. I have a tough time thinking that with crypto though. Theoretically if 2023 is tough crypto will see depressed prices along with other risk assets, but we're talking in hypotheticals here and I still feel like there is so much more upside in crypto as a whole it's tough to give it up. I guess let me put it this way, I'm more comfortable holding ETH back down to 900 (and buying more), than I am selling it here and hoping it goes lower to buy back in...and btw...what happens if everyone is too bearish and it never gets there and only goes higher...it's a much taller order buying back in at a higher price. Undoubtedly there is a tonne of money to be made from calling the local up and down moves, but I'd say that's not really for me for now!
NFTs - There continues to be elevated volumes in RENGA with another 463ETH trading yesterday as the floor remains around 2.5E. I think it's impressive how well it's held onto that level with a lot of volume going through, there must be some chunky buyers around here. Elsewhere, Cool Cats continue their ascent, climbing to almost 3.5E which is the highest its been in months. I have to say, just eyeballing it, it does feel like volumes are rising across a range of different collections...not by a huge amount, but I'm generally seeing most bluechip collections starting to do like 100-200E a day when for a while it was like sub 100E. Continue to think this period of ETH stability will continue to be conducive towards volumes and activity for NFTs.
Couple more things:
New reports this week: QQL, Meridian, Jenkins the Valet Revisited, Axie Infinity on the Degenz website.
Degenz TV: Episode 5 now out here: YT:
Spotify:
Have a great weekend everyone!
- OSF