The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - After a tough few days we finally saw equities rebound yesterday ending the day +0.75% on SPX and +1.2% on NDQ. Futures are up an additional 1% and 1.3% respectively. Interest rates saw a small rally yesterday which puts the curve at 428/369/349/345bps...still somewhat stable but incredibly inverted (something that I think changes over the next few weeks and months as inflation subsides). Oil continues to be weak hitting new YTD lows of around $71. Good to keep an eye on that, it seems inflation is headed in the right direction but what could fuck that up is further geopolitical tensions and a higher oil price, just something to watch out for. A lot of articles I read talk about a "soft landing" scenario now, ie the Fed managing to steer inflation lower without fucking up the economy. It's still a relatively unlikely scenario IMO as I think we will see a housing market crash next year, but I would definitely assess its probability as higher than most others would.
CRYPTO - We've seen crypto bounce back along with equities with BTC now at 17.2K and ETH back to 1288. Altcoins don't seem to be doing a whole lot to be honest and it kind of feels like we're back to where we were pre FTX for ages when there was simply just no volatility in crypto and everything was rangebound. Of course, my yearn for volatility ended up being not what we really wanted with FTX so I am not going to cry about it here and just count my blessings, but I as I keep commentating, I do feel like crypto is getting more and more primed to the upside here.
NFTs - Reasonable volumes across the board with floor prices mostly mixed and listings relatively unchanged. One thing that I think is interesting is that for Blur Airdrop 3 the mechanics are such that you get rewarded for bidding on collections. This has actually made the "bid/offer" on a lot of NFT projects very narrow and thus improved liquidity, and also caused what we rarely see in "overcutting" on bid prices. We're used to people undercutting or we're used to people sweeping floors when they want to buy, but in this situation you are rewarded for the bids you have out there and how likely they are to be hit and how long they stay active for. I think this reward has actually been a positive tailwind for NFTs as it's created liquidity in a productive away (as opposed to rewarding listings which creates more supply for sale). Think that's pretty much it, have my last flight today and I'm back to scheduled programming on Monday so hoping to be a bit more active again - GL and touch some grass!
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