The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Well, equities turned green yesterday closing 0.6 and 1.3% better on both SPX and NDQ, and we're seeing some decent strength in futures once again this morning with a further 0.9 and 1.2% increase. It once again puts us into fresh YTD highs and price discovery mode in the context of this year. It feels like we are moving to a narrative of "no news is probably good news" here in a year where US inflation has been drastically plummeting with a labour market that has held up well. It does feel like an era of high interest rates is the most likely outcome, but markets have proven this year that that does not necessarily have to be synonymous with falling stocks, and the 31% YTD rally in the NASDAQ tells you that big tech can still thrive even if we are in a "new era". I feel like this is the part of the rally where shorts start getting stopped out and market participants get bought in - next week will be interesting because if we do see materially lower inflation coupled with the Fed "repeating" their previous conf, I think you're set for a summer of upwards price action.
CRYPTO - We're at 26.6K on BTC and 1840 on ETH and it's really tough not to acknowledge the sheer underperformance vs equities we've seen in the past few weeks now. We do know why...Gensler...and I suppose it's rather remarkable that some of the biggest regulatory FUD in crypto we've ever seen has barely made a dent in price action. IMO, given the macro tape, it does actually make crypto a rather attractive entry point here. It will take years for the SEC case to come even close to a resolution and IMO if anything headline risk is skewed towards the upside there and we've seen what's been happening with XRP. My 2p is that these headlines will start to fall to the backburner and have very little marginal effect...I just feel like within the next 2 months we're gonna have that one random day where ETH surges through 2K and everyone starts FOMOing in again.
NFTs - Not much to write home about here with just another $30m of volumes across the market with price action basically flat. If there's one part of the market I'm bullish on for the summer it's generative art; I think it's become abundantly clear that there is capital that wants to be spent there and big wallets fully endorse that market. What that means IMO is we'll see some of the iconic collections from 2021 such as Fidenzas, Ringers rally, we'll see some historic stuff rally like Glyphs, Punks, and we'll probably see some fresh new collections do well as there is always something new and shiny people want to latch onto. The big question is will that seep down into pfp projects and the answer is I'm still not sure. I think projects with an art focus, rather than utility, stand a much better chance as people like to congregate around genuine artists/founders...but a rising tide can lift all boats so we will see. I do think NFTs will be back, but we're not quite there yet.
GL today and touch some grass
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