Morning Update: Friday 13th Jan
Bitcoin hits 19k!
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
MACRO - so inflation came in bang on expectations at 6.5% - the market decided it liked the figure but didn’t love it with stocks up 0.6% and US 10y bond yields falling to 3.48%. This morning we have opened with futures sharply in the red (-1%) after poor earnings by Citigroup indicated they were setting aside more money for credit losses, stoking fears about the impact of a recession. There was some better growth figures out of the UK and Germany today which has led to continued weakness in the dollar vs the EUR + GBP, we also saw gold top 1900 for the first time in over nine-months. What does all this mean? The market is basically predicting the Fed is going to pivot (only 25bps increase in interest rates in Feb) but that inflation will probably be persistent and the recession could be worse in the US than previous thought (particularly vs the rest of the world).
CRYPTO - big-daddy Bitcoin leading the way today - it topped 19k briefly before settling at 18800. Part of this move is the strength in the stagflation narrative which is also causing gold to run higher. Then you have the fact that bitcoin miners have stopped dumping for the first time in 4 months:
Elsewhere financial markets’ very own “Chief Wiggum” - Gary Gensler - turned up about 2 months late to the scene of a crime and charged Genesis and Gemini for the unregistered offer & sale of crypto asset securities through Gemini Earn. Its true that depositors here probably had no idea of the risks that were being taken with their money but (similarly to FTX) it seems like the SEC is always multiple steps behind on protecting consumer and instead is focusing its efforts on stupid legal battles like XRP or questioning whether ETH is a security. Other alt coins all seemed to be holding on to recent gains - APE recovered to 4.8, SOL is at 16.5, MATIC is 0.9 and GALA is at 0.04. Rug Radio $RUG token dipped below 0.06 ahead of the Cory Van Lew drop on February 6th
NFTs - Volumes still remain subdued (dropping to $30m) given the volatility in ETH. There have been some huge sweeps in Azuki + Beanz recently so its difficult to work out if something is imminent in that ecosystem, they announced Hilumia a 2D metaverse space yesterday - despite being the most active collections over the last 24hrs the floor still dipped to 15 and Beanz to 1.6. Elsewhere floors in the Yuga complex stabilised with volumes picking up slightly and Memeland collections rose (Captainz to 5.5) after there was an airdrop of “Treasure Maps” to everyone that was on the Captainz waitlist. We saw a Pink Hair CryptoPunk sell for 200ETH and someone swapped a Fidenza for a Mega Mutant Collar (floor price for Mutant Hounds dropped to 1ETH) but otherwise it was quiet on the grails side of the market. In terms of upcoming mints - Fewocious dropped the first trailer for his upcoming Fewoworld mint, Rug Radio announced February 8th as the date for the Corey Van Lew PFP mint and OnChainMonkey disclosed tiers for its upcoming collab mint with OG gen-artist Alexis Andre. Hopefully someone finds OSF soon…