The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Well it's gonna be another big week, with the US to release more CPI data on Thursday, from which we will be able to derive inflation for the month of September. It looks like the consensus for this month is 8.1%, which is actually interesting. That's vs 8.3% last month, but remember last month's expectation was 8.1% and we came in over. The 8.1% consensus feels high to me...the average oil price for August was $100.45, while for September it was $84.38...that's a whole 17% lower! So what's going on here...are people expecting core (namely shelter) inflation to be really high for September? It would kind of have to be to make these numbers work....so here's my crazy conspiracy theory. This is the last inflation number we get before US midterm elections on 8th November. We've seen how crazily the market is fixated on consensus vs actuality. Maybe the consensus number is high because the higher forces want the number to be a big beat to show that current monetary policy is working, and inflation is coming lower, thus a big market rally? I'm obviously talking complete bollocks here but you never know...let's see what happens on Thurs. In terms of today's action, it's a soft start to the week. Futures drifting about 0.6-0.7% lower after what was a tough day on Friday after payrolls came in slightly above consensus, down 2.8 and 3.8% on SPX and NDQ. Interest rates are pretty much back out to the highs and most worryingly oil is now up at $92.
CRYPTO - I've been saying the same thing every day and you're seeing it all over Twitter now, the volatility in crypto has really been sapped out...BTC at 19K and ETH at 1300 which means they're only down a small amount vs last week, compared to the wild swings we've seen in both equities and interest rates. The frustrating part in all this is that it means I don't really have anything to talk about. Eyes on $APE for sure but that is very much a known quantity now. I would usually say something like I think crypto will move with macro this week, and tbh I think it will, but maybe the beta at which it moves will be a lot lower than we are typically used to.
NFTs - CloneX has been the big winner recently climbing to almost a 10E floor after a trailer teasing a Koda-like character called "Animus" did the rounds, and it seems like we're heading for an airdrop in November there. Otherdeed and BAYC top the volume charts currently although their floor prices have remained stagnant. It's still quite remarkable that Otherdeed, a collection that is 100K strong. On the whole it feels like we had some good 10-20% moves upwards across a few different NFT projects and indeed the theory of crypto stability = better for NFTs seems to be playing out. Finally, it would be rude of me not to mention the rektguy action we saw over the weekend. A wallet that was funded with 125ETH 5 years ago, with very little activity until now, decided to make its first NFT purchases by spending 35E on sweeping rare rektguys, which included a couple of 6.9E sales. I must say I continue to be impressed by the amount that trades above floor, ie rares. Hope we continue to see some action this week, but at the very least, rektguy has certainly been a place of home for me in what has been a pretty volatile year! GL this week people.
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