The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Equities ended the day mixed on Friday with SPX closing 0.2% higher and NDQ about 0.6% lower. It looks like futures are a small amount lower to start the day, down by about 0.3%. Interest rates continue to be weak with 10Y now out to 3.73% and I would certainly expect some vol there going into tomorrow's inflation number. The source that I use (fxstreet.com) is telling me that consensus is 5.8% vs 6.5% last month. The expectation for core inflation is also 5.3% vs 5.7% last month. IMO given the huge expected declines there is a lot of room for error/disappointment there so I am kind of wary, but that being said I think if you hit or even come below those numbers you can certainly expect a market rally.
CRYPTO - We continue to see weakness as the market has not yet recovered from recent regulatory FUD which sees BTC at 21.8K and ETH at 1519. Altcoins did see a bounce yesterday off recent lows but we still remain about 15-30% off recent highs in many cases with some of the year's popular longs getting crushed. IMO This week will mostly be a macro story and would expect crypto to move with that. One thing to note on $APE is the minting schedule has been pushed back. Dookey Dash scores will be reviewed by 15th Feb, then there's something called "Lick the Toad" on 22nd Feb (I wonder if that's another game?) and then the Summoning happens on March 8th. In late March, we have "Mech Types Revealed". The thing to note here is that the $APE supply unlock occurs on March 18th, so right in the middle of when (what I'm guessing is) the mint and the reveal occur. Honestly, if I was Yuga I would make the mint have some sort of heavy reliance on $APE given they're going to be able to sell some like 2 weeks later and it would cause a big token pump, but we'll see what happens.
NFTs - We saw $32m of total volumes yesterday in what was a quiet-ish session. It's interesting to see Blur volumes ($8.5m) now be half that of OS volumes and I would expect such a trend to potentially continue as $BLUR farming has now mostly ended ahead of tomorrow's airdrop. Decent amount of weakness in the market overall with Checks plummeting to a floor of 0.98ETH from what I think was a high of 2.5ETH. I like Checks as much as the next guy but man 2.5ETH can buy you a lot of good shit and I think you're really playing for a meta to turn into something bigger and falling for Twitter hype when you chase something like that. That's no shade on Jack Butcher who I think is incredible but stripping the emotion out of it and looking at price action objectively it's not hard to see IMO. Doodles and CloneX have suffered the brunt of much hate with Doodles falling to a floor of 5.2ETH after Pranksy dumped most of his floor Doodles at the lows having bought them at the highs. CloneX sits at a shocking 4.5ETH floor. If you've been reading my recaps for a while you'll know I'm not the biggest fans of projects that treat collectors like consumers so I'm not sure why anyone is surprised by their actions as it's been pretty clearly stated for a while. I think people have a misunderstanding of what actually drives value to an NFT collection and what doesn't. It's a big week this week with $BLUR and we'll see if it has any impact on the market, I'm hoping it does!
GL this week