The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Alright new week here we go. It looks like equities had a meh close on Friday closing pretty much unchanged but rounding out what was an incredible week with both the SPX and NDQ closing pretty close to YTD highs and not very far from ATHs. Interest rates have crept a little higher off recent lows but the curve seems fairly stable here at 472/399/378/389bps across 2/5/10/30y. So what are we waiting for next? Well there are various pieces of economic data to come still such as Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence etc but most of these will not have a major impact on markets unless there is a huge swing either way. The next big event will really be the FOMC on 25-26th July - IMO this is a potential negative event because the Fed has been so hawkish at pretty much every single FOMC for the last 18 months apart from one at the beginning of the year. It will be interesting to see what they say with a backdrop of a strong labour market but plummeting inflation. It may also be a non event which I think in turn is bullish for the rest of the summer. Markets will be cautious going into it however.
CRYPTO - After the euphoria of last week we did see crypto once again retrace with the 31K level for BTC proving to be a continued menace. As it stands BTC is marginally above 30K while ETH sits at 1914. The BTC dominance level remains at 50%. I do think some of the weakness on crypto is coming due to continued Binance FUD on Twitter; personally I think a lot of the allegations are very pesky and don't have much merit to them; that's not to say there's nothing there and we can never be too complacent given what happened with FTX, but I've yet to read a piece of concrete/factual information that has made me feel concerned. You cannot ignore such risks, however, and these should be factored in to any decision making and risk positions. It continues to perplex me why crypto has underperformed so much and it makes you wonder if the SEC is going to bite back with something and someone already knows that information. Very tough to judge. Either way, I'm still in the camp where I want to be positioned for a bull cycle and happy to eat 20-30% dips if needed on that journey, because I think there is a real opportunity to chase those 5x, 10x and 100x trades.
NFTs - Price action a little soft with punks dipping back below 50ETH amid a 160ETH hoodie sale which I think is the lowest I've seen for a while. There was of course also a 550ETH zombie sale by punksotc to Metaversal which happened over the weekend too; another low print for a Zombie sale I think for something like at least 18 months or so....but it's good to see that activity and that people want to still make big bets on NFTs. Elsewhere it looks like Azuki and MAYC have shed recent gains while the Opepen edition rallied over 30% yesterday garnering a lot of attention once again across NFT Twitter. Still feels like a lot of hot potato to me in NFTs and we await an increase in participants which I think is still a while away, but it will happen. If you're bullish on crypto you can't not be bullish on NFTs, you just have to have the right time scales.
REPORTS - This week we will be looking at a wide range of Web3 participants, from the OG crypto artist Coldie, to the revisiting of the well established native brand 10KTF, to the fairly new community of Sproto Gremlins who keep rising in popularity more and more each day. If you want to read our other 385 reports, make sure to click the link below.
GL this week!