The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - After a strong close on Friday futures are opening pretty much unchanged today. Interest rates have seen a decent selloff with the curve now at 407/354/347/370bps across 2/5/10/30y. This week is an important one. Tomorrow, the FOMC commences and on Wednesday we get the interest rate decision and following press conference. The market expects another 25bp hike and we'll see what commentary we get from JPOW, personally I am hopeful of something bullish given we've had a month of good data and we should be getting towards the end of the hikes, but of course, Powell has serially disappointed for the last 12 months, what makes us thing this time could be any different? There's also the chance that it's a complete non-event, the Fed wants market stability and we've had that in equities this year despite interest rates being volatile. If we end the year with stocks and rates unch'd from here but inflation lower, that is a massive win for them. On Friday we'll get payrolls and on 10th May we get CPI again so there is a good amount of data to follow which could potentially cause some volatility.
CRYPTO - A weak start to the day with BTC falling to 28.6K and ETH to 1850. Alts are similarly feeling a bit of pain and are down about 5% across the board. It does feel like that, for now, 2-2.1k was the local top on ETH and it's taking a while to get through the selling we've seen since that. I'm not sure what crypto-specific catalysts we have at the moment, and whenever that happens I want to say we'll move with macro, but this year the correlation has been materially weaker than we've seen in previous years. I can't not mention $PEPE today which has rallied overnight to a monstrous $600m market cap, which is painfully like a 7x from where I sold mine! It's pretty astonishing to see such a big rally in a memecoin that hasn't even been in existence for a month. Personally I think this can get to crazy levels, but as per usual I think gotta be ultra careful about not FOMOing stuff - A LOT of people have made A LOT of money here. One thing I would say the longer that elevated levels are sustained, the greater chance this has at going parabolic in a bull market and competing with the likes of $DOGE - just have to be patient to time entry points!
NFTs - Volumes appear to be falling off a cliff with just $24m treading across the market in the last 24H which is something like the 5th successive daily decline. Floor prices appear to be mixed with MAYC/BAYC/Pudgy Penguins losing steam while Doodles has been a recent winner. I would be wary of price action here as it does appear like plenty of people are playing the game of sweeping a large amount of the floor to push the market up and then using the newly formed liquidity to dump the NFTs. People tend to gravitate towards "things that make money" and the recent meta has been all about shitcoins and so it's unsurprising to see the degen code move from NFTs to shitcoins. I still personally think we are near some kind of a bottom on many projects and feel that summer might tell a different story.
We will see. GL today!
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