The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - We had a lacklustre close on Friday which saw SPX end the day 0.3% lower and NDQ 0.7% lower. Interest rates have been volatile recently but we ended the day on Friday off recent highs with 10Y closing at around 3.82%, still close to YTD highs. Today markets are closed in the US for Presdent's Day so would expect a relatively quiet session with not much more to add. Given it's a short month, we have just one week left of February and next Friday we'll kick off the macro mania again with payrolls, so I think we're at that point of the month where this week is kind of a wash as we get closer to important datapoints.
CRYPTO - Nice to see that recent strength is holding although I would note that we are a bit off recent highs. BTC and ETH are kinda unch'd on a 24H basis at 24.4K and just below 1700. Altcoins seem to have outperformed overnight with most things on my screen up about 10-15%. $BLUR made new highs of $1.3 over the weekend and despite the diluted market cap feeling high at almost $4bn, I would note that the circulating supply is very load and a lot of people have probably sold their airdrop. They've been smart to constrain supply and drip it out into the market in small increments. Also interesting to see $CANTO up a decent amount having underperformed for the past few days. WRT to $APE I would note that this week on Feb 22nd we have "Lick the Toad" - I still dk what that is, and then on March 8th we have "The Summoning" which I believe is the mint of the Mecha Apes, which then get revealed in late March. I'm still holding onto the $APE trade to see if there's any minting implementation or mechanics for The Summoning.
NFTs - Well $BLUR farming is fully underway with NFT volumes across top projects going through the roof. It looks like there was $82m of volumes in the last 24H of which Blur was $57m, and OpenSea materially lagging at $16m. I think those who missed out on airdrop 1 are now chasing airdrop 2, and as such the volumes across a platter of NFT projects are up significantly. It's funny because even though royalties are 0.5% for projects on Blur and OpenSea, most projects are actually doing 10x the volume they were a week ago. I know that's not sustainable but it's definitely something to note, the liquidity rn in NFTs is insane. I think the NFT market continues to be rangebound here on most projects as people farm - occasionally you'll get a bit of alpha here and there. One project I think that's worth keeping an eye out on is Notable Pepes. We saw VVD's Pepe checks bounce from a low of 0.005 ETH (there are 240k of them) to a floor of 0.01ETH after the most recent drop (via allowlist raffle from holding checks) traded at 1ETH. It's not as simple as that so I would advise digging into it a bit more and learning the history of Rare Pepes and Fake Rares but I think it's certainly an overlooked part of the market right now. Of course, as a a disclaimer, I do own quite a lot of checks so do not treat this as financial advise and do treat it as a biased bag-based view.
GL this week!
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