The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - After closing unchanged to smalls higher on Friday, futures are opening the day down 0.5% on both SPX and NDQ. Interest rates remain fairly stable in this range still (feels weird given the immense volatility we've seen this year) but they stand at 453/399/381/390bps across 2/5/10/30y. Oil has been heavy of late, but remains around the $79 area. We are now just less than 2 weeks out from the next big datapoint which will be payrolls on Friday 2nd December. It looks like there's also a speech from Jerome Powell on Weds 30th November, with the ADP employment change on the same day. Something that is quite striking to me is that the consensus for change in non-farm payrolls in November is -30k, that would be a huge drop from +261k in the month prior, and the first month of negative payrolls in a long while. If the realised number is anywhere close to this, and we get another month of lower inflation, it really does put extreme pressure on the Fed IMO to at least start communicating potential tune changes. The first 2 weeks of December when we get payrolls, CPI and the final FOMC of the year I think will be the most important with regard to setting the tone for next year. A lot of pain this year has come as a result of a huge interest rate selloff, I think with this increasingly worsening data (and inflation in the right direction) we're bound to see a pretty epic rate interest rate RALLY - the big question is if this causes risk assets to rally, or if growth concerns take over.
CRYPTO - We saw continued weakness over the weekend with BTC now barely claiming 16K while ETH has sold off to just above 1100. This is after one of the FTX hackers dumped about $250m worth of ETH on an illiquid Sunday (although I must admit I think it's pretty impressive how ETH is only down like 5-6% on the back of that). The other things that continue to cause concern rn, however, are the continued rumours and chatter around DCG and Grayscale, as well as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong selling his stock. Allegedly his reasoning for it is to "fund scientific research", but in my experience a CEO selling their own stock (especially when it is already down so much) is definitely red-flag central and is never a good thing. So, while I think there are some real macro tailwinds that could cause a continued rally if we hit the right datapoints, there seem to continue to be some crypto-specific pressures that haunt our market. For me it still creates a good buying opportunity and possibly an even better one if things get worse which is why I continue to think DCAing remains the best strategy in times like these. If you zoom out to 3-5 years time, those that DCA'd and held effectively through this period will be the ones who come out on top.
NFTs - I'm kind of impressed by NFT volumes but it seems to be focused within the Yuga complex with another 320E in Otherdeed, 292E in BAYC and 141E in MAYC trading over the last 24H, with floors relatively stable. There continues to be good activity in SuperRare's RarePass which has posted almost 1.5K ETH of volumes since launching maintaining a price of 22E, above the 17.25E dutch auction ending price. I think keep an eye on Yuga and $APE stuff this week, I think staking starts on 28th Nov so next Monday...so unless something changes we are about a week out. It's been a long wait but I still think the mechanics of that can cause a rally, just a question of how much sidelines capital for it the FTX fallout has killed. GL this week everyone.
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