The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - A very quiet start to the week with equities pretty much unchanged having dropped ever so slightly on Friday. With this week leading into a long weekend for many jurisdictions, I would expect volumes to remain somewhat low. Interest rates are talk of the town at the moment with 2Y having blown out to 4.24% and 10Y to 3.66%. The saga over the debt ceiling continues with authorities yet to reach a deal and speculation continuing to build for a potential default by the US on its debt (an outcome that I personally still think is very unlikely). Elsewhere something that's noteworthy is that markets are currently pricing in just over a 20% probability of the Fed hiking once again in its meeting in June. I do believe the weakness of the regional banking sector has finally hit home and as we've seen well over a year of hikes, it feels like we're finally at the terminal rate. The next stage of the process is going to be "wen cut" and there's still a bifurcation in views as to whether than happens in 2023 or 2024.
CRYPTO - Barely any movement tbh in crypto in the last couple of weeks now almost with BTC finding stability at around 26.9K and ETH at around 1815. BTC dominance has remained stable at around 47.9% which is close to the highs of the year, while altcoins are generally unchanged over the past few sessions. Worth noting that shitcoins have had a tough last few days and have shed about 20-30% of recent gains. I just had a quick look at the ultrasound.money website for ETH and it looks like we're still burning about 1% a year in supply which is wild. That's 252K ETH burnt since merge, if we were still on PoW it would have been 2.6M of ETH supply CREATED in that same time frame - that is a massive massive swing and I wonder how much actual impact that's had on price.
NFTs - $40m of marketplace volumes yesterday so activity ticking up a bit - price action across the board is somewhat mixed but things do seem to be edging a bit higher. I've commented a lot on the Sotheby's/3AC auction and the first round went pretty well with one of the Fidenzas clearing over $1m while other pieces sold for multiples of their estimates. I think that tells me that there is money that's been waiting on the sidelines specifically for this auction, and just like the ACK Broken Keys collection showed you, there is in fact liquidity waiting to buy blue chip NFTs at a discount. This thought process prompted me to buy an autoglyph over the weekend; I'm not sure if we are at a "bottom" yet on NFTs and there's definitely an element of knife catching here but I've commented a few times that I think this auction has the potential to mark a bottom so putting my money where my mouth is. I would note that activity we've seen seems to be contained within high-end blue-chip/generative art and the big question is if any of this can feed to the broader NFT world. We also saw three Fidenza sales over the weekend which were about 30% higher than recent sales so things to seem to be ticking up..let's hope!
GL this week
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