The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Equities had another soft close on Friday closing 0.8% and 1% lower on both SPX and NDQ. Futures are about 0.2% lower this morning - so we're definitely having a bit of a breather and pullback here following what truly was a monster equity rally. In the context of global stocks, it was actually the worst week we've seen since March. Interest rates have also come off their recent highs and stand at 470/394/369/377bps across 2/5/10/30y - it feels like the vol has been sapped out of that market as the Fed continues to reiterate a pretty rigid policy and until that tune changes it's hard to see a mega interest rate rally, but I think it will happen at some stage. Obviously something to be ultra wary of here is the Russia/Wagner stuff which may cause some market volatility. It's tough to say what the direct impacts are here and I'm by no means a geopolitical expert so I will refrain from expressing a view, but I'll just say there are definitely good outcomes and also bad ones hence being concerned about potential vol (wow what a groundbreaking statement).
CRYPTO - It's impressive to see BTC holding above 30K now for the past few days with ETH lagging a little but falling back to 1890. Altcoins have staged an OK recovery with there being some shining stars, in particular $APE which has climbed to 2.4 after falling to as low as 1.8 a few weeks ago. What has happened though is BTC dominance has climbed even further with it having hit 52% recently despite falling back to 51.5% today. Personally I still believe if we see this strength sustained we are going to see altcoins have a decent move higher, primarily led by ETH, and it'll happen in the most heavily shorted coins which is why I think $APE has been doing well the past few days. It's a risky play because of course it is predicated on BTC continuing here and we're sitting at YTD highs, but I think it's an interesting one.
NFTs - A lot happened over the weekend. First, we saw BAYC fall as low as 34ETH at which it seems to have rebounded back and finally posted a daily gain in price. We saw similar price action in MAYC. There is a lot of FUD on the TL about Yuga and while I think some of the fears are fair in terms of "they are doing too much" I do believe things got a little oversold and there does seem to be some large wallets buying...it's just a question of if they have the liquidity and restraint to be able to hold and steer these positions safely. Elsewhere Azuki holders are benefitting from a new airdrop called "Elementals" for which the public sale also goes live tomorrow. This follows their Vegas event which seems to have been a success, but nonetheless we saw the Azuki floor price drop on a "buy the rumour sell the news" type price action. It will be interesting to see how the Elementals mint performs given it's gonna be the first large mint we've had in a while from a large player.
GL today
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