The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm from Dubai
MACRO - After another weak close on Friday, futures are smalls green to start the day being up about 0.5% on both SPX and NDQ. So I thought this week would be a big week in that we would get payrolls on Friday (it's usually the first Friday of every month), but interestingly given February is a short month apparently there's "not enough time" to do it for this month so we're actually getting it on 10th March. As it stands, the source I use (https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar) has consensus estimate of -35k, vs last month's whopping 517k. Given we're still about 2 weeks out I'm not sure that's an accurate depiction but it would truly be interesting if we saw next month come out negative, which would be the first time since COVID I believe. So yeah, not really sure what to expect this or next week, but once we hit mid-March it gets spicy again
CRYPTO - A pretty decent rebound after recent weakness which sees BTC at 23.4K, ETH at 1640, with altcoins seeing about a 5-6% bounce off the lows. It feels like we've had some decent consolidation for $BLUR here around the 85c-90c level and I'm curious to see if that token dies out here or has legs to run further. Def keep an eye on $APE into the Summoning mint over the next couple of weeks and it's once again another reminder of the supply unlock on 18th March - for those staking I still feel it's probably wise to sell ahead of that. As mentioned before, tough to make heads or tails of crypto right now, we've had a solid start to the year and I think given the current macro backdrop risk-reward feels a lot more balanced or even possibly skewed towards the downside here; we need to get some low payrolls and low CPI numbers to get us back on the right path. My strategy is to revise my buy targets a little higher - I'm only looking at ETH right now and would look at averaging down from 1200 and below if we ever get there.
NFTs - We saw another $90m of NFT volume in the last 24H with Blur maintaining a 68% market share. It seems to be consistently maintaining 65-70% market share post the $BLUR airdrop now which is not great for OpenSea. BAYC is top of the volume charts with 5K ETH of volume which sees its floor price back to north of 70ETH, having hit as low as 58ETH over the weekend. We saw that dip get bought quite aggressively and it would seem that there is certainly money ready to deployed there at lower levels. Everything else seems a small amount higher which is good to see but in general I continue to believe that this liquidity we are seeing on NFTs will most likely be short term, unless we see the token price of $BLUR hold (or indeed go higher) which when you think about it could actually have the opposite effect and super charge NFTs. I continue to be long-term bullish on NFT projects with strong communities and simple roadmaps over those who are trying to conquer the world or consumerising collectors. I think in the next 6-12 months you are going to see a lot of big-name projects who have front-loaded funding and costs and are not making revenues actually end up failing.
GL this week!
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