The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - A little bit of weakness to start the week with both SPX and NDQ down 0.7% in futures, after closing smalls lower on Fri. Worth noting once again the continued strength in interest rates on Fri which now sees the curve at 446/386/367/371. I still personally think we're going to see a continued rally in yields there with economic data likely getting "worse"...and indeed oil is now at YTD lows sitting right below $74. This Friday is a big day for which we have non-farm payrolls. It looks like the consensus number is +208, so quite a bit above that random -60k estimate I saw but it would still mark a decline should we hit the number. In general, we are looking or wanting for this number to be low IMO as it puts more pressure on the Fed to pause their hiking cycle. Elsewhere it's worth noting the weakness in China with the Hang Seng falling as much as 5% earlier after protests in China over the current COVID controls.
CRYPTO - We enjoyed 16.5K BTC and 1.2K ETH for most of the weekend but gave up some of those gains coming into Monday in line with the macro weakness. One of the largest movers and outperformers has been $APE which is up about 35% from its recent low. As a reminder, it sounds like staking is set to go ahead on 5th December with rewards to accrue on 12th December, so we're about 2 weeks out from the full thing now:
As you guys know I've liked this trade for a while but definitely becoming more aware that it's becoming a consensus trade hence the recent price action. For me, it all comes down to whether we see some technical demand created for $APE when staking actually launches. The numbers say it's likely, my gut says it's likely, but these things are certainly unpredictable. The other question, for those playing it, is if you actually want to go ahead and stake or intend to sell into that first pump. I would expect yields to be 300-400%+ which is pretty good for a coin that's not like completely a total shitcoin but it does become a slippery slope. My 2c is we see a rally into the contract going live and a continued rally for the first 2-3 weeks and then as yields come down it's prob time to sell. NFA etc and obviously I own a lot of $APE just to disclose that, but I think that's probs my play.
NFTs - Following on from above Yuga assets have been popping with another 1K ETH of volume in the last 24H in the whole ecosystem and floors in BAYC, MAYC and Otherside up to 74E, 1.3E and 14.4E respectively with just 3-6% listed across the collections. Elsewhere volumes look "ok-ish" and price action looks like it's a small amount higher. To me it does feel like there are some green shoots there and when you get a big Yuga complex rally it often trickles down in value to other project. Indeed, we saw a pretty impressive performance for rektguy over the weekend, so here's hoping we can end the year with a bit of green in NFTs. One thing I would say is given everything that's happened this year I really would have expected a lot of NFTs to go to 0, but months have passed and many still survive. I think that's incredibly bullish from a medium to long term perspective. I'm in Miami this week for Art Basel - will be hanging around the Metaverse Miami stuff today and tomorrow - looking forward to meeting people.
GL this week
-OSF