The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - We had a rather strong finish to the week on Friday which saw SPX and NDQ close 1.44% and 1.68% higher respectively. It takes the NASDAQ up 17% YTD which makes it the best-performing quarter it's had since the post COVID rebound in 2020. It's a rather astonishing return and it has really been predicated by this prospect of rate hikes being paused and potentially having lower rates at the end of this year or beginning of next. For me, when you have an entire quarter of strong performance it's tough to sit there as being bearish still and say "I will be right eventually" because you've now missed out on 3 months' of big returns. I think that move higher will have caught a lot of people off guard or wrong-sided and those who are under-risked are faced with the difficult task of deciding whether to buy in higher or not (this is why BTFD generally works if you don't use leverage and can sit and be patient). Interest rates seem to have stabilised here with 2Y at 4.08% and 10Y at 3.5%. This week is a big week as we get payrolls on Fri for which early consensus seems to be 238K. The market seems to keep fearing a "beat", so I think anything in line or below will be seen as a positive.
CRYPTO - We had a bit of weekend weakness in smalls but price action is solid this morning which sees BTC at 28.3K and ETH back above 1800. It's nice to see it hold there or above for a few days now and I'm personally hoping this eventually becomes a new support level. Altcoins are mixed but have experiences a decent run, notably, $APE seems to be on the move again having climbed about 10% of its recent lows to a price of 4.4, while $BLUR is also up about 7% to $0.6. I'm getting into a habit of checking BTC dominance now because I find it super interesting, and I would note that this morning we had shot back up to 47.85% and we're just a little ways off that level now. I spoke last week about the Shanghai Upgrade for Ethereum, it looks like there has actually been a date set for it which is 12th April - so keep that in mind.
NFTs - $61m of marketplace volumes over the weekend as activity has picked up a little. It seems like all the focus right now is on Nakamigos which is up to a floor price of 0.68, up 51% in the last 24H which is impressive for a collection of 20K. One thing that's worth noting here is that the unique holders percentage is 28% which is remarkably lower than most collections and implies a lot is held by whales. That is usually viewed as a negative but we'll see how things shake out as I think it's been one of the best pfp collections released recently from an art/relatability standpoint and of course I've pondered buying it since 0.02ETH and have not touched it at all to my demise! Elsewhere floor prices are kinda mixed, I see +/- 5% moves on OK-ish volumes...we're certainly not seeing the farming flow that we saw for the most of March and I'm at a loss for where NFTs are headed directionally now. Last thing to mention is we saw DeGods migrate from Solana to Ethereum over the weekend, the floor initially spiked from 9ETH to 11ETH but has since dropped back down to 8.22ETH. It'll be interesting to see how this performs as it sits decently above a few fallen angel projects.
GL this week!