The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Well what an insane payrolls number on Friday...517k vs expectations of around 180k. That really is an INSANE beat and once again shows not only the resilience but the apparent growing strength in the labour market. Had this number come before the FOMC I think we would have had a very large sell-off in risk assets because we were under the impression the Fed was still worried about inflation and laser focused on the labour market. Of course we heard somewhat of a different story from the FOMC this right before, and as a result the sell-off was a bit more muted with SPX and NDQ both closing 1 and 1.8% lower respectively. Futures are once again pointing lower this morning by 0.6-0.8%. The big mover has been interest rates where we saw an almost 20bp move higher at the 10Y point. It takes the curve to 436/373/357/365bps across 2/5/10/30y so interestingly still very inverted.
CRYPTO - We saw some weakness in line with equities but majors have generally held up ok with BTC still at 22.9k and ETH at around 1630. Alts have gotten a bit smashed up, $APE has dropped back to about $5.7 so that's about a 7-8% move lower. The thing to watch out for here is the upcoming token unlock. It loos like there's about 40M worth of tokens (so $228m worth of $APE coin) that will vest on 19th March. That would increase the outstanding token supply by around 10%. The biggest chunk of that (25m) goes to "launch contributors" - I have no idea who these are but I have to image it will cause a lot of selling pressure on that day. So $APE has been a pretty fantastic trade since staking started, but I reckon you want to start thinking about monetising some or part of it before the unlock. On Feb 8th Dookey Dash ends and on Feb 15th we get "The Summoning", I think it's worth holding out for that in case there's any interesting $APE mechanics...indeed you would think the team maybe is incentivised to do something to give the token a big boost before the unlock!
NFTs - So, first we had the memes meta, then we had the OE meta, now we have the "checks" meta...which is funny because the checks were actually kind of born out of the OE meta. We've seen the VV Checks rally another 52% to a FP of 2.16ETH on north of 2K ETH of volume overnight. Absolutely insane and once again shows that you simply cannot fade virality. Jack Butcher's other OE, "Opepen Edition" has also doubled in FP to a price of 0.21ETH. We then saw VVD's "Checks - Pepe Edition" mint which sold almost 240k editions at a price of $6.9 each, which spurred many other deriv OEs and drove value back to the OG. I think there's a lot of FOMO/cope out there and it's once again bringing NFTs back into true their true form. Oh and you probably all forgot but we also have the $BLUR airdrop in about a week. I still believe we will keep moving from current "meta to meta" - there's a lot of money to be made but you have to be sharp and recognise what is a gamble and what isn't. I still believe we will see volume return to more seasoned projects eventually, but for now, hype cycles continue to rule.
GL this week!
Comments
No posts