The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - On Friday we saw payrolls come in slightly below expectations at 187k, below the 200k consensus number. I think that's a decent outcome and the market didn't really budge too much at it with stocks closing about 0.5% lower on both SPX and NDQ while interest rates actually rallied with 2Y now currently at 4.84% having actually fallen a little further. It does seem like we've had 2 or 3 payroll prints now that are lower than expected and despite the US economy being very strong right now, the ultimate recessionary consequences of sustained high interest rates will certainly be on the back of the Fed's minds. This week is important as we have CPI again on Thursday. It seems that this is the first month (July) for which the consensus is for inflation to actually rise once again...remember for the month of June inflation was 3%...the current expectations are that for the month of July it's 3.3%. The next few prints will certainly be interesting as we are over the easy comps and many are expecting that inflation could potentially have bottomed out here, and if it has, the question is does it stay at these levels or does it climb back higher. I would say that if we come in below 3.3 or even below 3, we should expect the market to rally as we'll have a combination of datapoints there that could suggest that the Fed is starting to overdo it.
CRYPTO - The snoozefest continues with BTC at 29K and ETH at 1836. It's been a tough time for anyone who benefits from volatility and thus bulls and bears alike will have been frustrated by this channel, which is painful for anyone who has funding costs to their positions (particularly shorts). Altcoins are sort of all over the place but we haven't seen a concerted move which means BTC dominance remains elevated at 50.3%. Perhaps we get some vol this weeek with macro and CPI but it just feels like to me whatever happens, we'll see a slight move and then we'll revert back to the mean. We await further news from the ETF stuff but once again I do think a lot of that is priced in, the big thing for me there is will it create a lot of demand for BTC and can we see ETH ETFS...imo the answer to both of those is yes and I still believe it's highly bullish, but it may just take a while to play out with ups and downs in between.
NFTs - Another low volume day for NFTs with just below $10m trading across the market amid price action that has been relatively muted across the board. A big winner over the weekend was Milady which at one point climbed to a floor price of almost 4ETH before dropping back down to 3.5. That still marks a 25% in crease on the week and a 29% increase in 30 days meaning it has outperformed a tonne of NFTs out there. Another strong performer worth highlighting is rektguy which is up about 15% on the week; it continues to amaze me how strong our community is there and gets me excited for when the NFT cycle eventually returns! Elsewhere it doesn't look like there have been many larger sales while BAYC clings onto a 29ETH floor and punks at 48ETH. Let's see what this week brings!
REPORTS - This week we will be releasing 6 new reports. From the artist side we 3 projects to look out for. First is Professor Jun who is releasing TODAY their 3D generative project called ‘Threads’. Next is TJO who is best known for their use of the colour ‘BLeU’. Finally, a number of artists (who yet we don’t know) will be releasing works as part of Proof Grails Season IV. For those who love gaming and BYAC, make sure to check out Wreck League. If you’re more into what’s going on at Polygon, then definitely explore Pluto Misfits. If you love all things culture in this space, join us as we revisit cryptodickbuts who recently dropped their S4 collection.
GL Out There