The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - We had a rather strong finish to equities on Friday with SPX and NDQ closing 1.9% and 2.1% higher respectively. Interest rate yields have clawed their way back up from last week's panic and we now sit at 394/342/344/374bps across 2/5/10/30y. It's curious to see equities hold their gains this morning, the big thing this week will be CPI, where the consensus for inflation is 5.5% vs last month's 5.6%. Curious to see where that shakes out and also how the market responds, because the Fed is certainly starting to indicate that they are at the end of hikes and I think everyone is well aware of the fragility of the banking system, so if inflation doesn't keep trending lower and starts to even out or go the other way, then we are certainly going to be in a bit of a pickle and I could see a bigger and more worrying risk off event in that scenario. So this number is once again important to me as it continues to build a picture as to where we're at.
CRYPTO - We had a great pump on Friday but we've since had a 10% move lower in majors with BTC back down to 27.8K and ETH to 1850. It's very grim across altcoins which are all down about 10-15%. I'm not quite sure what's causing this crypto weakness, there seem to be some rumours (or confirmations) of the ETH Foundation selling ETH which I imagine they probably need to do periodically to have fiat for costs. It's certainly been a volatile one over the past couple of weeks. The shitcoin market has been insanely volatile as PEPE hit a 1.5bn market cap on Friday, only to recede by about 50% overnight on Sunday, with other associated coins experiencing a similar journey. IMO on Friday it was pretty clear people got max euphoric at the highs and the Binance listing for PEPE was a very clear "sell the news" event; honestly it amazes me how we see the same story time and time and time and time and time and time and time again as people get married to their bags. I'm sure plenty of people have made great money, while others have probably gotten rekt. There are two rules here for me: rule #1 is set yourself targets where you will take profit, doesn't have to be all in one go. Rule #2 is please for the love of God treat this stuff as a gamble as if you were at the casino, too much of my timeline is people tricking themselves into thinking these coins are good investments. When you play blackjack at the casino, you play the odds, and if you play them well you win, but you might lose. That's a very different mentality to actually "investing" your money. Plz stay safe.
NFTs - With just 29M of volumes in the last 24H I suppose the question everyone is asking is if shitcoin profits get rotated back to NFTs, and if the shitcoin frenzy is indeed a meta will we see attention return to NFTs? I personally think we can regain attention but it certainly feels like a tall order here. A lot of my timeline is about "XYZ person flooring BAYC to buy PEPE" and a lot of these guys are well out the money now. It feels like pure silly season to me. It's also interesting to see recent meta projects such as Nakamigos drop by 20% to an FP of 0.15 as meta chasers prob move out of that to chase the next thing. All in all, my assessment is we are still in a market of hot potato and for there to be real upwards price action we need new entrants. Funnily enough I think the money people have made on $PEPE has the highest chance of doing that if it can hit mainstream news in an effective way.
GL this week!
Comments
No posts