The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
Well what whirlwind of events in the last 72 hours. The most brutal thing about all of this is seeing friends who had funds on FTX lose all of it and get hit hard. It's been a long year and to keep taking hits like this is very tough. My sincere best wishes to everyone out there and I really hope people are ok and have the ability to bounce back. Always reach out to someone if you're not feeling well. Take some time off screens, take deep breaths. This year has been shite but if nothing more it's been character building, we will all get through this.
MACRO - We're seeing a small bounce in futures this morning after stocks ended 2-2.5% lower yesterday in a weak session. Interest rates have seen a pretty substantial rally which puts the curve back at 461/426/409/427bps respectively across 2/5/10/30y. Today we get the inflation number, it looks like most bank estimates are actually around 7.7-7.9% altho the consensus number is 8%. That tells me people are really expecting this number to come lower given the easier comps, so I think watch out below if we miss and it comes higher. Last month's number was 8.2% so there's not a lot of margin for people to see that psychological feeling of the number declining.
CRYPTO - I think ETH traded as low as 1100 and BTC as low as like 16.3K in the last 24H as the shakeout continues after Binance walked away. TBH, I don't see how anyone can "save" this given all the illegal shit they've been doing at FTX. How can anyone just walk into that and all the liabilities, and anyone who does want to, this is certainly not a deal that gets done overnight. It could take months if not years. Where do we go from here? Well, for crypto we're seeing a small relief rally this morning but I'd say the main thing is to watch out for further liquidations from those exposed. Mando wrote out a good list this morning:
. Gameplan for me personally, well I have a ladder of limit orders set on ETH and APE which are the two I'm happy to buy lower here. Times like this it shows that it pays to be patient and stick to levels so you have the powder to spend at such depressed levels. It takes a huge amount of discipline and tbh it's taken me a decade of being a professional trader to really handle it and I'm far from a master at it. I did see some talk of Justin Sun coming for FTX but I would deem the success rate there pretty low.
NFTs - Unfortunately we've seen a bit of a collapse in NFTs with prices down 10-15%, in particular we've seen BAYC drop to a sub 60E floor which is the lowest it's been all year I believe. I suppose it's good to see there's been decent volumes, but it does sound like FTX had some NFT exposure (apparently they bought the big lot of Apes at Sothebys) so knowing that there is a liquidation event there we've seen stuff drop. Any big vol move like this is generally bad for NFTs and the knee-jerk reaction is always a move lower. However, given the $px depreciation of ETH, it makes NFTs a lot cheaper in fiat terms and if history repeats itself I think we could see a decent bound in NFTs in ETH terms.
GL and hope everyone is staying safe out there.
-OSF