The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - The momentary euphoria from the last CPI number seems to have died down as stocks receded some gains yesterday before climbing back up like 0.3-0.8% today. The next big numbers we're waiting for are payrolls and FOMC in May but we do get some other interesting datapoints like PPI and PCE in between although they tend to have a lower market impact. My personal opinion is that the path of least resistance is upwards here; price action just feels like things want to rally and I think there are enough people out there who have been bearish/short that may have to change positioning as the rhetoric changes. If you're short here I'm not really sure what specific catalyst you're playing for atm other than hoping for a random black swan event, which, to your credit, seems to be in vogue in the last couple of years. But as we enter a holiday or summer period with not much in the way of new expectations, I think the market can see a grind higher.
CRYPTO - Well, the big headline today is ETH breaching 2K after the Shanghai upgrade and it would seem that my suspicions materialised as we did not see a big crash in ETH post the staking supply unlock, and my guess is that there was a short base going into this which then covered when they realised that the price wasn't going lower. I do believe ETH has underperformed BTC as a result of this and I feel like there is a possibility of a continued outperformance. BTC remains at 30.2K while alts have gained ground and maybe there's an argument to say we have a small possibility of a resurgence in alts.
NFTs - $55m of trading volumes yesterday with Blur market share dropping slightly to 58.2%. Price action in NFTs still seems and feels like a steady decline across the board. My biggest problem is that we are not seeing new entrants into the market so it continues to be a game of hot potato for the next shiny new thing and that was/is Nakamigos but I wouldn't be surprised to see that narrative shift again to to something new...the cycles seem to last about 2-4 weeks and we are getting to that time period. It just means that wallets move from collection to collection rather than us seeing an uplift in the overall space. As depressing as it is, I don't think it means that NFTs are dead and inevitably we will at some point see another bull run...you're always meant to buy blood but it's harder to do in NFTs because picking the right project can be like threading a needle. For me, I think I'm waiting for a bigger dip to deploy some capital but it will only be in NFTs that have historical/cultural value and clear lasting communities, rather than utility-driven things, as I think the former has a far higher probability of having prolonged value.
GL today!