The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Well, IMO the CPI numbers couldn't have really been much better. We came in at 3% vs 3.1% expectations and 4% last month, core came in at 4.8% vs 5% expectations and even monthly inflation was 0.2% vs 0.3% expectations. If you take a step back, 3% inflation compared to what we were seeing last year is pretty wild and it's actually only just 1% above the Fed's target rate of 2%. We're in a position where the US economy is actually pretty strong yet inflation has come lower, so the Fed's policy seems to have worked and what we're focused on now is if forward inflation can remain low or if we tick back up. Equity markets have reacted very strongly with a +0.75% and +1.25% move higher yesterday in SPX and NDQ and an additional 0.4-0.8% move higher in futures today. It's also worth noting we've seen a mega rally in interest rates which now sees 2Y all the way to 4.66%, an additional 10bp rally vs yesterday's close. Next up we have the FOMC towards the end of the month which there may be fears into, but for now it seems to be straight sailing for markets.
CRYPTO - Well bulls are in disbelief, including myself, as BTC barely moved and sits at 30.5K having once again very briefly tested 31K. ETH momentarily traded above 1900 but is now back down to 1882, while altcoins are also somewhat stuck in the mud. There have been rumours that the US government has started to move some of the Bitcoin it obtained from the Silk Road stuff which I think is to the tune of about 10K bitcoin...timely huh! Idk what to say other then there is obviously a lot of sell pressure on crypto at the moment and for that reason it is drastically outperforming legacy markets; we will need to see that sell overhang clear before we can move up but the good thing is it does feel like dips are also getting bought which means we stay in a narrow channel for now. Watch this space...
NFTs - Price action is once again a little meh, it feels like the bounce of NFTs has kind of come to a halt but it's good to see that thes prices are holding with Punks still above 50ETH and BAYC at 34ETH. There have been some pumps in some "green chip" collections with Sappy Seals posting a 17% bounce to a FP of 0.46ETH and Nakamigos clibing 12% to 0.26ETH. There continues to be strong volumes across gen art with another Fidenza sale and good volume on Squiggles which maintain their 10ETH floor. There's not a whole lot else going on on the TL, it was interesting to see that there are now two alien punks listed, one at $9.42m and $10.7m, more than half of what the last alien sale was (around $20m). I'm curious to see if any of these trade...on paper they are "good levels" but it's a whole lot of ETH.
GL out there!
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