The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A modest day yesterday which saw SPX close 0.3% higher and NDQ 0.8% higher. Futures are starting the day unchanged. Interest rates have been edging higher which puts 10Y back to almost 3.8%...I def think it's worth keeping an eye out there because we're meaningfully off this year's lows on interest rates while equities have held their rally, so it's telling you the narrative the market believes right now is that of a soft landing which I think is somewhat risky. I think I'll continue to maintain that I was surprised we didn't move lower given the last set of data but I suppose one month doesn't confirm a trend and we'll have to see how future datapoints pan out.
CRYPTO - Someone once said: "IMO you're always meant to fade regulatory FUD in crypto and it feels like a good entry to add some risk. " Regulatory FUD is just dumb mostly imo, my top-down view there is you can't kill or quash crypto. Certain practices may face higher regulatory requirements and that in turn may affect the companies who've benefited from supernormal profits, but in general it's not really going to impact crypto as an asset class. Despite being an advocate of buying regulatory FUD, I must admit yesterday's price action certainly caught me off guard and things have pumped higher than expected. It's times like this I am grateful for my strategy of not trying to trade things actively and just sitting on a long, because I could very easily have sold risk a couple of days ago to play the FUD and would be in a tough spot now with things inexplicably higher and looking like it has legs. BTC is at 24.6K and ETH kissing 1700 a couple of times overnight while altcoins have pumped a further 15-20%, namesly $BLUR continues its majestic ascent to a price of 1.12! It puts us at YTD highs on BTC and I'm curious to see where we can go from here.
NFTs - A big volume day yesterday which saw $120m trade across the market with $BLUR doing 3X the volume of OpenSea in the last 24H. I think that's pretty impressive given most of us thought OS would regain market share post airdrop. I suppose dangling the carrot with airdrop 2 works. Price action on the whole continues to be solid with most projects climbing a further 10-15% and it does appear that profits are getting put back into some of the more "traditional" "blue-chip" pfp projects that we're all but familiar with. I'm sure if there was a meta rn that took market focus it would go there, but it doesn't feel like there is anything there. With SZN 2 of $BLUR airdrop and the token now having some perceived value I would expect continued farming and I actually believe it to be a strong positive for NFTs. I think if crypto continues to rally the wealth effect will override the opportunity cost effect and so the setup here for NFTs is once again pretty nice to continue their rally. The tough thing is, of course, WHICH NFTs do you buy and this year we've seen attention flock to shot-term hype cycles. It's a tough one because I think many NFTs will see amazing returns, but the majority of them will underperform.
GL today.
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