The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - After what started to be a dreadful day yesterday in markets, we saw equities stage a valiant recovery to end the day just 0.7% lower on SPX and actually up 0.4% on NDQ. NDQ has been outperforming given it does not contain bank stocks. Futures are modestly in the green this morning with NDQ once again outperforming. We truly saw a crazy amount of volatility in interest rates, the 2Y is the one I'm watching which I think fell as low as 3.72%...this was almost at 5% just a week ago so it's insane to see such a huge move like that in a short space of time. The curve this morning has sold off a little and we're at 393/354/343/362bps on 2/5/10/30y and I would note there is also volatility in the curve shape itself; yesterday we steepened enormously and today we're flattening back out. It sounds like Credit Suisse's financial hole has been (at least temporarily) plugged after the Swiss central bank agreed to lend $54bn and also buy back about just under $3bn of debt in order to put an end to the panic. The stock is up a further 15% today. For now, major panic seems to have been avoided but what's happened in the last few days is certainly not great. We will see what the Fed has to say at next week's FOMC and the probability of them hiking by 25bps has risen back to 66%. Very curious to see what happens there.
CRYPTO - Crypto has really held in well with BTC at 24.9K and ETH at 1660 - we are of course off recent highs but tbh with yesterday's plunge I was surprised at how well things held in and we seem to have bounced back with some conviction. It's nice to see alts also rallying today with things up about 5-10%. I'll keep saying it...I do think all this is good for crypto and we just really really need no more crypto-specific blow ups this year and we might just have a good chance of catching on a lot more. Note that the $APE unlock I believe is tomorrow, and it appears (so far) there hasn't been a big use for it for The Summoning so just be aware of potential price volatility there.
NFTs - $84m of marketplace volumes yesterday so slightly higher than what we've been seeing for the past few days and Blur staying in that 60-70% market share range. Most projects seem to have shed another 5-10% and the fallen angel trio of Moonbirds, Doodles and CloneX continue to be under scrutiny in the past 24H. Also noteworthy is a 26% decline in Checks which is down to a floor price of 0.88ETH. Yesterday we saw a big dip in NFTs and today it seems to be continuing. Yesterday we saw The Summoning which I am still finding a bit confusing but I think if you own passes you can mint something called HV-MTL (Heavy Metal) which derives itself from 8 different "power source" types. Basically it seems like these are what will turn into an "Evo 1" mech which allows you to participate in future minigames to unlock additional HV-MTL. If I've lost you by now then don't be worried coz tbh I lost myself reading that and while I think this will probably be successful like most Yuga things, it's a lot to digest and bordering on being a bit too convoluted IMO.
GL today!
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