The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Welp, we saw another huge squeeze once again yesterday, with SPX closing 3% higher and NDQ closing 4.6% higher. This takes levels to where we were before the September crash. Honestly, time and time and time and time and time and time and time and time again it just proves having a strategy of DCAing in down trending markets and being patient is probably the easiest way to make money, and you can do it with an extremely high degree of conviction. What is happening now should not really be a surprise to you if you've been reading these recaps daily, because for months we've been talking about looking towards communication from the Fed for a potential policy change and how a change in macro data can drive that. We got the first glimpse of that yesterday when Powell strongly indicated that the Fed could ease the pace of hikes at its next policy meeting this month. That is driven by economic data which we are seeing get "worse" each month. Inflation has come down for 5 months in a row. PCE today came in below expectations and we have two big data points coming up in payrolls and CPI in the next couple of weeks. The latter are impactful and should they confirm this trend I think you can expect the Fed to start being more clear about a reduction in hikes and it brings forward the timeline of when they could lower interest rates. The next thing we have to think about is if Powell's timing could save any recession or its potential depth...should he steer this to a soft landing he will certainly recuperate some clout IMO...but that is the big risk for 2023. TLDR: it's looking like the Fed hiked rates in time to control inflation, will they be able to cut rates in time to save a bad recession?
CRYPTO - We saw a bit of a rally along with macro which took BTC to just above 17K and ETH still around the 1277 area. Altcoins saw a pretty decent bounce yesterday. Honestly, given everything above and the changing macro tune to end the year, you have to really start questioning whether crypto could be an amazing buy here given the 40-50% drop we saw post FTX. The two conflicting pieces right now are "macro hope" vs "FTX contagion", I'm in the camp of the former I would say. One thing for sure, it feels like someone or a lot of people are sitting on the offer here for ETH and BTC (ie selling a lot) and we probably need that to clear before we can move higher. Maybe some sort of liquidation type thing that doesn't have to be market-sold but does have to be exited. Given my DCA strategy we're not at levels where I am going to add, and we got some good levels in the past few weeks where I executed, so it's just a case of staying disciplined and letting it play out..but my God is it fucking tempting to buy a bunch of crypto here, I think the upside/downside is skewed massively in your favour for December.
NFTs - MAYC tops the volume charts with 460E in the last day while the floor price has remained relatively steady. KILLABEARS has seen quite large volume to a similar tune which takes its floor price to now above 3E. All in all if you look at the 7-day change for NFTs most things are up between 20-100% so we are actually seeing a decent return of activity and price action for NFTs as a whole, alongside a rally in ETH, which coincides with a potential macro pivot. If everything continues to align it also makes me pretty bullish NFTs for next year, it doesn't mean the whole market will go up as I still feel supply is overwhelming, but certain projects I feel one can start to get very constructive on again here. We also saw some great activity in rektguy once again yesterday, keep the memes coming!
GL today!
-OSF