The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Equities had a tough day yesterday with SPX closing 0.5% lower and NDQ 1.5% lower as we continue to recede recent gains there. Despite that, we're still sitting at very close to YTD highs in what has been a phenomenal year for equities. I'm in the camp that we're actually at the start of or maybe even in the middle of a bull run here for risk assets and IMO all the catalysts right now are positive ones. Interest rates have edged a little wider with 2Y up to 4.75%. so breaking out of its recent range. I suppose the one big risk here is a threat to the housing market given interest rates - the UK is in a highly challenged position and so is the US. That is the sort of thing that can have a deeper economic impact and stunt growth. Today we get the interest rate decision from the BoE - while not super important for global markets I think it's worth keeping an eye on how other developed countries are faring.
CRYPTO - I believe the official term is "we are so fucking back" - we saw BTC surpass 30K and it seems to have actually held overnight, with ETH above 1900 and most alts up a decent amount. Despite the latter, BTC dominance has once again risen to a level of 51.2%. IMO this is still a delayed reaction to the various ETF filings we've seen, and those of you who read my commentary everyday will note that I mentioned I thought the Blackrock news was underpriced on Monday. To reiterate - Blackrock is the largest asset manager in the world. I'm of the opinion that every asset manager will eventually have a crypto portfolio, every investment bank will have a crypto trading desk. We all hate Gary Gensler but maybe appropriate SEC regulation is what brings in a plethora of institutional investors which is insanely bullish for crypto. I'm not talking about today or tomorrow's price action here, I'm talking about a few months and a few years - but I still believe most people are not bullish enough. Why bother fucking around for 5-10% here and there when you can hold an asset that could return you 5-10x (and probably more) over 2-3 years. That's the way I see things. It's also worth mentioning that PEPE had a massive +50% day yesterday and I'm still in the camp that that coin is not dead (probably wise to add a disclaimer that I own some from DCAing post the crash but I don't want to mention it loads as this newsletter is not about peddling shitcoins).
NFTs - Not looking too rosy with BAYC falling below the 40ETH mark to an FP of 38.5ETH for the first time since November 2021. It looks like most NFTs are down about 3-5% in FP but remember ETH has seen a decent rally in the past few days so in USD terms we haven't shed that much. It's interesting to see Punks maintain a floor of just above 50ETH - I think they are an interesting category given they're a pfp but also attract buyers from the higher-end generative art world. IMO if crypto keeps rallying here (which I think it could) it could detract attention away from NFTs in the short term. What we need is a bigger and more meaningful bull run in crypto which then causes investors to look for "other things" that have underperformed to make money on and only then will we see a wider NFT rally.
GL today!
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