Morning Update: Thu 29th Dec
YTD lows
The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Yesterday was another grim day for equities which saw SPX and NDQ close 1-1.3% lower on the day. We're now back to YTD lows on both, ending the year down 21% and 35% respectively which is bleeding sight for already sore eyes. There have been moments of hope in the second half of the year, but each time we've seen them quashed by Powell, who refuses to budge on his current monetary policy. Interest rates have remained stable over the last year but at 3.88% on 10yr we're a reasonable amount off recent lows.
CRYPTO - The continued stability and somewhat strength of crypto is somewhat astonishing to see but it also has generally been the story of H2 in "normal operating circumstances", of course, when we've had the black-swan-type events crypto sees a big gap lower until it finds a point to settle at. For now, BTC remains at 16.6K and ETH at around 1200.
NFTs - In what is a quite period for markets, NFTs continue to be very active and that's mostly due to the continued harvesting of $BLUR for airdrop 3. We saw many projects hit local and all-time highs yesterday, and this morning it seems some them have receded recent games. I think the problem is that a lot of NFTs have been accumulated and passed around by the same 20-25 accounts who have been farming, it's tough to imagine all of these guys wanting to underwrite hundreds of NFTs so I can only imagine that once the rewards end, we see a very aggressive pullback in NFTs. After that, there is a case to be made for that dip to be bought post $BLUR airdrop but that's only if the airdrop itself has value. It's a forgone conclusion most farmers will be looking to dump immediately, so the question is if the Blur team/Paradigm could do anything to add value/utility to the token post that dump. If that answer is yes, I could see a sharp V-shape in NFTs. An interesting idea would be to allow for $BLUR to be used on the marketplace itself. We'll see what happens over the next couple of weeks.
GL today!