The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - A soft day for equities yesterday saw SPX close 0.5% lower and NDQ 0.9% lower. Futures continue to the downfall today with a 0.5%/0.6% move which puts the S&P500 now almost back to unchanged on the year following what a strong start filled with hope. The thing to once again watch out for and be worried about is interest rates, as the curve continues to progress higher putting us at 494/432/404/399bps across 2/5/10/30y. It actually puts us through the highs of last year on 2Y interest rates, implying that the market fears near-term inflation is still a big concern and any potential monetary pivot for 2023 now remains unlikely. All of this comes after multiple datapoints which show that inflation is not slowing at fast as the market would like it to. It's interesting to see how well stocks have held up and I suppose there is an argument of economic resilience to support that. I still think we are due to see lower inflation measured by CPI for the next few months, but what is the bigger concern is what happens in 2024 if the labour market continues the way it is. Powell really changed his tune in last month's FOMC but with the most recent set of data not living up to expectations, the market has become more fearful.
CRYPTO - TBH I think crypto has held up really well given the macro backdrop in the last few days. We remain at 23.4K on BTC and 1640 on ETH which is mostly unchanged on a 24H basis but about 2-3% off the highs we saw in that same time period. Altcoins are getting hurt pretty badly with most things down about 3-5%, in particular, $BLUR back down to 80c which looks to be about a 10% move lower. Gentle reminder for those staking $APE that we are now 16 days away from the supply unlock. TBH I would have sold by this point but I'm still clutching onto the hope that $APE possibly plays a part in The Summoning on 8th March. If not, I think that's an opportune moment to sell on what has been a pretty solid trade since mid December.
NFTs - $83m of volumes in the last 24H so slightly lower than yesterday and it looks like there are no signs of Blur budging from the top spot, accounting for another 58m of marketplace volumes. You have to think this is now extremely worrying for OpenSea, regardless of whether you think Blur volumes are sustainable or not, they may only have to keep it this way for a few months to put OpenSea in a tough spot. Floor prices on the whole are unchanged to a small amount higher. It seems like most older projects are unchanged or a touch lower while there are some new entrants enjoying a burst of positive price action. Everyone is worried about the great NFT crash, but what if Blur continues this for the whole year and the token stays steady? It's definitely a possibility (and one would think within their gameplan to squeeze out OS).
GL today
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