The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Well it was not a pretty day for risk assets yesterday as equities gave up recent gains to fall 2.5% and 3.5% respectively on SPX and NDQ. We are seeing an aggresive move higher in interest rates which takes the curve back thru new highs in the front-end 468/436/416/418bps is where we are on 2/5/10/30y. At yesterday's FOMC conf Powell mentioned that it was still "very premature" to think about pausing interest rate rises. That kinda dispels the WSJ rumours and is certainly more hawkish messaging than I think the market was hoping for. The only nugget of hope is a mention of taking into account the lags with which monetary policy can affect the economy and inflation. This means that we're not going to be waiting for inflation to be 2% for the Fed to stop hiking, there's gonna be a point where they will deem the trajectory to be strong enough to push the breaks (tbh it kind of feels like the plan is to still over do it). Finally, there is certainly no sign or mention of a pivot; I think that would have been a stretch but some clarity or light at the end of the tunnel would have been nice...but we didn't get that. Based on this information alone one would think we see more of a sustained selloff in stocks back towards YTD lows. Indeed, we have payrolls on Friday and inflation next week which I think will still be very relevant datapoints, but I feel like risk is now skewed the other way post that FOMC now...if either come in high then I would prepare for some pain (conversely if they go the right way then it could be good...lol).
CRYPTO - I have to say, given the macro backdrop in the last 24H the resilience in crypto is insane. BTC still above 20K and ETH at 1550. Even alt coins are actually seeing ok price action with MATIC notably up 15% to 96c which puts it at local highs. I guess I'll have to eat my words yesterday about crypto finally regaining correlation with macro after this weeks' events, it would seem that it still has a very strong bid to it. Not sure if that's because of short positioning or for other reasons but it's quite an impressive outperformance now, especially if you compare prices from the June lows of this year. It makes me feel cautious about doing anything crypto-wise right now. Don't really want to buy any risk here because of how well it's outperformed, and don't really wanna sell any because there seems to be technical factors causing the outperformance.
NFTs - There continues to be very strong volumes on Art Gobblers with the floor on OpenSea hitting 25ETH at one stage, despite there being multiple sub 20 trades at the time on Blur. It's quite remarkable how people will still not even check other marketplaces, let alone aggregators which makes your life a lot easier. Elsewhere volumes are very low/benign...with price action seemingly headed gradually south. There's been notable weakness in the Yuga complex as the disappointment around staking delays build (personally I think that creates opportunity as it's just the delay of good news rather than the revocation of it). Worth noting that NFT London kicks off today, I don't think there's necessarily price action to be had from it but it's always great for communities to form IRL and I do feel like morale boosts/changes can impact projects positively. I'll be speaking at the event at 11AM today, and look forward to seeing you all at The Rekt Show tonight!
GL today