The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Well a lot has happened in the last 24H. The Fed increased rates by 25bps as expected and once again gave the vibe that any rate cuts would not occur in the near term future, but that could change depending on the economic data and developments. Markets have been pricing/expecting a rate cut by the end of the year (and still continue to do so) but this is once again going against the grain of JPOW -- ie markets don't really believe what he's saying and think his hand may be forced in the next 7 months. One change is that the new statement removed previous language that stated "additional monetary tightening may be appropriate", which implies we may be at the end of hikes or close to. Of course the big news is that of further weakness in regional banks, particularly PacWest where shares dropped another 50% after the bank stated it was exploring a potential sale due to distress. We've seen a massive move in interest rates wit the curve now at 388/336/338/370 across 2/5/10/30y while equities moved smalls lower yday and are mostly unchanged today. The next big thing we have is payrolls tomorrow where consensus is 179k vs last month's 236k print. If we hit that number it would finally mark two months of decline and feed further into the narrative that markets could be correct over the Fed.
CRYPTO - With everything that happened, crypto rallied. The banking narrative gets worse, interest rates rallied and inflation continues to be a medium term concern. These three things put together form a very strong narrative for crypto and it's certainly been the story of the year. BTC is back up to 29K and ETH to 1900. Honestly, I think these narratives only get stronger and I'm still in the camp that crypto ends the year higher than where we are now (barring any crypto-specific black-swan events). It also kind of explains the shitcoin phenomenon. When is the last time we had something like this? Probably 2020, which preceded the massive bull in 2021. There's something about a bunch of bored and broken people coming together to make things work in conjunction with a turning macro backdrop in conjunction with bitcoin's next halving in 2024. Honestly I think the next 18 months are going to be very, very interesting.
NFTs - Well volumes are getting absolutely destroyed atm with there being a total of 22M trading in the market yesterday. MAYC and Azuki continue to dominate the charts and it's almost as if those two are the only things Blur farmers feel confident farming. Price action across the board is not great with things generally down about 3-5% on very, very little trading. Honestly I really don't have a lot more to add here - my TL is all about shitcoins rn and it's almost as if people have completely forgotten about NFTs. "New mints" are just people seeding new shitcoins and it's become a case of finding the next hot thing to put your ETH into for a quick flip, which tbh, kind of requires a very similar skillset and there is of course money to be made with a handful of rags to riches stories out there. I do think shitcoin szn is certainly temporary while NFTs will last for decades, but it's just a question of how long temporary is.
GL today!
NOTE:
- DAP and DGP are being merged into one new contract, Degenz Code (artwork designed by Timpers)
- This will be via a one-for-one burn, begins now and ends 31st May
- All utility will migrate to Degenz Code after the burn, where we have some refreshed plans Please see this tweet:
https://twitter.com/DegenzNFT/status/1649084188971130881?s=20
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