The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Equities finally gave some way yesterday closing 0.4% lower on SPX and 1.75% lower on NDQ, but still sit pretty much at YTD highs. Futures are basically unchanged this morning, while interest rates seem to have found some good stability at current levels with the curve not moving much at 452/391/379/396bps across 2/5/10/30y. There really isn't a lot else going on right now in markets, next week will be big with CPI and FOMC which we'll get on Weds/Thurs but until then it kind of feels like it's just random noise. I'm not sure what to expect from the FOMC either, they could literally just hold rates and repeat a similar message and it really does put the market in "waiting zone" which means random headlines will get over-scrutinised and exacerbated but the reality is we may not see much vol. Optically to me it's shaping up to be a quiet summer, the first in a while if true!
CRYPTO - The ABRF (always buy regulatory FUD) mantra continues to work out as we saw a significant bounce from the lows after Gensler's uninformed and quite frankly stupid/idiotic accusations. as it stands we are at 26.3K on BTC and 1842 on ETH so a little bit off recent highs, but I think it's a pretty good performance to see that prices can now absorb a massive slew of regulatory heat. It must suck to be a skeptic and watch something like that have basically zero impact. Kind of makes me even more bullish long term and tbh something that I think crypto markets want above all else is just some sense of clarity. I personally think responsible regulation will have a positive impact for crypto because it should protect retail investors and also allow more institutions to participate, but it has to be done in a way that's actually smart and allows the industry to thrive, rather than clamp down on it.
NFTs - Volumes still kind of meh while price action on the whole is rather stable. I was surprised to see mfers fall back below 1ETH to a floor price of 0.89ETH while the Opepen Edition also fell 6% back to a floor of 0.88ETH. In the world of high-end generative art it continues to be very exciting with a huge 625ETH Fidenza sale printing a day ago. We've started to see quite a few large high-end generative art sales and IMO that's very bullish, it tells us that people do still want to pay millions of dollars for this stuff in the middle of an NFT bear market and that makes me constructive for the future, but not for all NFTs...you really have to own the right stuff. You can view all the auctions here on Sotheby's -- there are certainly a chunky amount of bids: https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2023/grails-part-ii
GL today!
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