The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - We saw the tiniest of bounces yesterday with SPX closing 0.14% higher and NDQ 0.5% higher, while interest rates continue their rangebound volatility climbing all the way back to 4% on the 10Y. We are now one day away from tomorrow's dreaded payrolls number for which I feel like the market is bordering on too much fear for, but I think almost rightly so. Looks like consensus has stabilised at 203K, vs last month's 517k. It's pretty amazing how we have consistently come in ahead of consensus now for the last 6 months or something. It's a weird one because I feel like the market is right to be cautious/worried into tomorrow but I also feel like prices haven't fallen far enough to reflect that, which makes me think there is probably a big short base out there (we know it exists on treasuries) going into these numbers.
CRYPTO - we are seeing a true, traditional flight to quality trade going on here with ETH and BTC down maybe about 2-3% to 21.6K and 1530, but alts getting absolutely rekt with things down ANOTHER 10-15% across the board. Honestly, it looks like most alts are something like 30-60% off their YTD highs which is pretty wild and sadly I think a lot of people will have gotten rekt there and are probably wondering what to do with bags down so much off the highs. Always a tougher question to ask with altcoins because you never truly know if they will all survive, whereas with ETH and BTC you can bet that they are probably here to stay. I think an interesting trade into tomorrow on ETH or BTC is having some sort of straddle but I bet you vol is fucking expensive rn.
NFTs - $78m of marketplace volumes so we have ticked up since yesterday, while Blur has maintained a 66% market share. The big move yesterday was Gitcoin Presents which everyone is dubbing as a "Vitalik NFT" and as a result the FP moved 500% higher to a price of 0.42ETH. IMO it's a misunderstanding of what it means for someone to actually be an "NFT creator" - this feels more like to me if someone used an XCOPY CC0 element in their work and branded it as an XCOPY NFT. I think the price is already lower from the highs of like 0.6ETH, and tbh I wouldn't be surprised if the price went higher from here because NFTs can be irrational and whoever can paint the strongest narrative will prevail until they get the opportunity to unload their bags. I guess my point is, I personally wouldn't be buying these under the impression that I own an NFT by Vitalik. Otherdeed saw a bit of a rally yesterday after Yuga announced the second Otherside trip to happen soon, while everything else seems to have dropped about 10% as Blur farmers start to get shaky with $BLUR dropping even further to a price of 57c.
Dicey times out there I would say, GL everyone!
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