The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Very strop day yesterday, we had a classic day of "the numba is leaked!" as stocks surged int he second half of the session to close 0.6% and 1.4% higher. Interest rates saw a smallish selloff but tbh continue to remain fairly rangebound at 437/377/359/354bps across 2/5/10/30y. Indeed, today is the big CPI day. As a reminder the expectation is for inflation to come in at 7.3% and core inflation to come in at 6.1%, both would mark reductions vs the previous month. I think this chart pretty much nails it in terms of what we can expect wrt the moves:
. As you can see the risk is skewed towards the upside which is in line with my view too. At this point, we just have to wait and see as to what happens. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a CPI number (probably never) but I am probs getting over excited and it ends up being an anti climax lol.
CRYPTO - Seeing some reasonable strength this am with BTC almost back to 17.5K and ETH almost back to 1300. At this point I think and hope we regain some correlation with macro after the FTX fallout. It looks like there are a few rumours circulating on Binance now, hard to judge what's real and what's not. It sounds like Binance saw $902m in withdrawals in the last 24H. I think it's probably fine but I thought the same about FTX and I guess you never really know in this world. I would suggest reading this to get some more info: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/12/13/binance-withdrawals-surge-as-concerns-about-its-reserve-report-spook-traders/. Elsewhere we saw $APE coin retreat 10% overnight although it's since displayed a 5% bounceback. That certainly has been an anti climax wrt to the moves and it simply seems like most people seem to not care about it that much yet. My strategy was to stake for 1-2 weeks and sell into any initial pump, but if the price of it stays stable I think that's a good case to keep staking and reinvesting the rewards into the staking contract to boost the returns. Just note, at some point people will have made a large chunk in rewards and I would expect that to get sold back into the market.
NFTs - I try not to talk too much about our projects here but it was great to see rektguy breach a 1ETH floor yesterday on an additional 126ETH of volumes which means tattoo time for me. I think that marks close to 1K ETH in volumes over a week which is quite impressive - big thanks to everyone in this community who's turned up every day because without you things like that wouldn't happen. There are a lot of projects out there who've raised millions of dollars and it's often daunting to have to compete with roadmaps promising metaverses, tokens, entire ecosystems etc...so it's nice to see that it is possible for more grassroot-style projects to get their limelight. Elsewhere volumes continue to be strong across the board and I maintain that this will continue to be a good month for NFTs overall given the $BLUR airdrop mechanics.
GL today!