The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - We had a strong day yesterday with equities closing 1-1.5% higher in both SPX and NDQ. Interest rates were strong and rallied back below 3.7% on 10Y. There continues to be no volatility in oil. Today is a big day as we get the CPI number, I would note that the consensus actually appears to be 6.2% vs 6.5% last month (note that's quite a big difference from the 5.8% which I thought it was yesterday) and so the "room for disappointment" is a lot smaller. Very curious to see how it all shakes out, I think the risks tbh are skewed towards the downside here in that if the number comes in above the market is likely to panic fall further given last month's payrolls number, the magnitude of that down move being bigger than the inverse should the number come in lower. We will see!
CRYPTO - We saw sustained weakness yesterday on continued regulatory FUD which I can only explain as Gensler trying to over-compensate for his fuck ups on FTX last year. We saw ETH drop as low as 1475 but we've since bounced off the lows in the last 24H which sees BTC at 21.8K, ETH at 1505 and about a 10% rally in associated alts off the lows. I think given how fragile crypto feels, leading on from above, I'm certainly nervous for it if inflation comes in higher than expected, so here's hoping we get a good number lol.
NFTs - Big day today with the $BLUR airdrop. I would keep an eye on its fully-diluted market cap and use LooksRare and X2Y2 market caps as comparisons. As usual, be careful of all scam links and make sure you're on the official blur website (blur.io) before claiming anything. We did see some collections start to pump yesterday (including our beloved rektguy) so I think there's a good chance we see some of this money come into the NFT market. I think it's going to have a bigger effect than people realise. Market volumes yesterday were subdued at $31m total, but have to think that ticks up significantly after today. We are in the calm before the storm.
GL today!
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