The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
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MACRO - Equities ended the day unchanged on SPX and 0.8% higher on NDQ but would note that many bank stocks were very crushed. It was an absolutely insane day in interest rates as we saw 2Y collapse by about 100bps int he space of three days (the biggest move EVER in that space of time) all the way to 4%, and 10Y dropped as low as 3.46%. These are massive massive moves in interest rates. We've actually sold off and reflattened in the curved this morning which now sits at 429/383/364/374bps across 2/5/10/30y. There's a lot of questions now as to whether the Fed is cornered into pivoting or at least stop hiking. Markets are still pricing in 85% probability of a hike this month but tbh I question that...as I said yesterday you have to pick the lesser of two evils and for me that's letting inflation persist. Today we have CPI for which the consensus is 6% vs last month's 6.4%. I do think if this number comes in below expectations we can see a big rally because it will "allow" the Fed to be less hawkish, if we come in line or above that answer is less clear but we could probably sell off a decent amount.
CRYPTO - Yesterday I spoke about how potentially lower rates and high inflation is good for crypto, along with the fact that people are losing faith with banks. I believe that to be a medium to long term positive and for crypto to suffer short term if we see any market volatility...so it really was a surprise yesterday to see a big outperformance of crypto which saw ETH and BTC touch what was pretty much YTD highs! It's funny because conceptually everything makes sense, but to actually see it play out is another thing and you usually just assume that with market volatility risk assets generally get crushed, and it felt like we were on the edge of apocalypse for crypto but it just never really happened and we surged back. I suppose there is probably a big short base for it too! Seeing lots of chartists (and again I am by no means a chartist) call for moves to 25K and 2K on ETH...let's see what happens.
NFTs - About $59m of marketplace volumes so we continue to be lower than last week, with Blur maintaining 60% market share. Floors on the whole are rather mixed, we saw a massive jump in SewerPasses, about +73% in floor price actually as they jumped aggressively after getting destroyed in the weekend's blood bath. Elsewhere MAYC and AZUKI have slowly climbed back to 15ETH while BAYC has shed some ground falling to a price of 66ETH. Not really a tonne more to add here other than it seems like in the big PFP-type projects most volumes continue to be Blur-driven, and many people who like to collect for collecting continue to divert their attention to other projects, which are more often than not art focused. I am still impressed by how NFTs bounced back overall following this weekend.
GL out there today!
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