The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - A slightly softer day in equities yesterday which is not unexpected given the recent run we've had. Futures, however, are displaying a strong rebound this morning with SPX up 0.7% and NDQ is up 1.1%. Interest rates are displaying some pretty good strength with a meaningful rally yesterday which now puts the curve at 436/393/381/401bps across 2/5/10/30y across the curve. I talked a lot yesterday about how inflation seems to now be trending in the right direction...note that was just for the US. Looking at the economic calendar it looks like we get the UK CPI number tomorrow for which the expectation is inflation of 10.7% vs 10.1% last month. The US numbers are far more important for general markets but it is still a bit concerning to see inflation spiralling out of control in Europe.
CRYPTO - I think this has been the 4th day now of relatively stable crypto prices since last week's shenanigans...so..for now it feels like we are at some kind of local bottom. I think the crypto market continues to wait for more headlines on bankruptcies, how deep this hole is and what the "contagion effect" truly is. I think my view remains unchanged here that things aren't gonna be as bad as people are fearing and current prices could truly form some kind of a bottom so long as the macro picture holds up. IMO, the more that prices stay at these levels the better it is, no news is good news in this situation.
NFTs - Well the big mover has been BAYC as a result of BenDAO auctions as people default on loans (presumably as a result of getting hit by FTX - I'd imagine a lot of people who took out loans against apes probably punted it around on FTX and subsequently lost all the money after it was trapped). As a result the BAYC floor is sub 50E for the first time this year, after 1.5K ETH of volumes yesterday. MAYC has been more stable at around 10E but posting good volumes of 500E, while Otherside is now sub 1E with 300E of volumes. We saw a big spike in 10KTF volumes yesterday after Yuga Labs announced its acquisition, but the floor price there is back down to around 0.31E, a move of 15% lower. All in all, as I mentioned yesterday, I would expect a prolonged hangover for the NFT market here post FTX.
GL today!