The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Well traditional markets are remarkably higher once again. Yesterday we ended the day 0.9% higher on SPX and 0.3% higher on NDQ. Futures are higher this morning, up about 0.8% on both which puts SPX above 4K once again this year. It's rather astonishing that we are where we are given everything that has happened but it once again plays into the "it's so bad it's good" narrative and tbh I believe we are where we are because people are expecting, or rather hoping for a dovish FOMC this week. Interest rates continue to experience simply insane volatility and the 2Y point has sold off aggressively from yesterday's lows to now a level of 413bps, with 10Y hovering around 359bps. As it stands markets are pricing in an 85% change of a 25bp hike tomorrow, I think that + dovish commentary is probably the base case here, anything worse than that we sell off and anything better we rally. We're lining up for one of the most important FOMCs in the last 12 months (I know, I say that like every month).
CRYPTO - Relatively stable price action sees BTC maintain a price of 28K and ETH hover around at 1760. It's important to note that alts continue to get destroyed here for the most part, with many down like 10-15% across the board. Part of me really wants to start layering into some alts because I do think some of these will end up being 10X+ trades, but it's so hard to know what to buy and have conviction on it and I've historically been terrible at trading alts, so not sure why I would switch it up...but if I wanted to gamble this is what I would gamble on. Maybe even something like $APE which is down almost 40% from YTD highs but still has a staking functionality and is now post supply unlock.
NFTs - Almost $100m of marketplace volumes yesterday with about 74% occurring on Blur, of course, a large chunk of that was in cryptopunks after someone ended up selling about $17m worth of punks into the Blur bid which caused the floor to drop back lower. On the whole price action is rather mixed, it seems like a few bits and pieces are up 3-5% while others are losing steam. What's notable is Jack Butcher's Checks falling 14% back down to a floor of 0.69ETH and the Opepen Edition falling by 10% to a floor of 0.35...and yes, that pun was intended. I'm not really sure what to think about NFTs from here, it all feels rather tiring with mindless trading we are seeing on Blur and I can only hope we see some ability and rewards for trait bidding to make things more interesting again!
GL today!
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