The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm @everyone
MACRO - Having closed mostly unchanged yesterday equity futures are opening about 0.4% lower this morning on both SPX and NDQ. We've seen a pretty substantial rally in interest rates which now puts the curve at 403/350/342/366bps across 2/5/10/30y. Not really seeing much info out there that explains why we've seen that move, but we have the FOMC next week on 2-3 May which actually precedes payrolls and all other macro data we get for May so that will certainly be an interesting one. The market widely expects an additional 25bp hike which I believe takes us at or thru the Fed's terminal rate. We did just have a month of "good" inflation and labour market data with the mini banking crisis still in the background but it remains to seen how much of that the Fed will care about. One thing I would say is if you remember the first FOMC this year, it was very bullish and Powell painted somewhat of a rosy picture of a potential soft landing. IMO, economic data YTD has mostly be conducive to that, so I wonder if we get a reiteration of that message - I think that's not off the cards personally. For some reason fear seems to be rising and sentiment dropping and that makes me feel more like taking the other side.
CRYPTO - We continue to descend a little lower, BTC has maintained at 27.3K but ETH has finally cracked and dropped to 1824. That's a 13% move lower in ETH in the space of about a week which is certainly sizeable. As a result, we're seeing many ERC-20 coins get beaten up once again today. Something I would really watch out for here is the shitcoin market; it's been a big move lower in majors while shitcoins have concurrently moved up thousands of percent. If this weakness persists in macro and bigger crypto I think you have to watch out there because it's tough to see whales not dumping and causing a bigger move lower. FWIW as someone who bought and sold too early I actually really like $PEPE and think it has a great chance of "making it" and thriving in a bull run but I think you have to pay attention to macro here, for me I'm considering averaging back into it at around .000015 and below as a gamble.
NFTs - The "bounce" does appear to be holding with recent outperformers such as Nakamigos and Azuki maintaining thei gains, while other major collections are mostly still off their lows. A really astonishing stat was this one posted by NFTStatistics.eth
https://twitter.com/punk9059/status/1650603821859758080?s=20
, which shows that over the last 12 months the average daily market "loss" in NFTs has been about 1000ETH. It's pretty wild and a rather depressing stat but perhaps one that many can resonate with. It's weird because in the last 12 months I feel like there's also still been a lot of money to be made in NFTs, if you've been switched on there are plenty of projects that have done well, but it does always seem to be new projects and it does play into the thesis that NFTs are indeed just altcoins with jpegs. For me the next big thing for NFTs is certainly in the upper end of the market as we await what happens with the 3AC/Sotheby's auctions, I am still hopeful that can mark somewhat of a bottom there but we shall see.
GL today!