The information in this message does not represent any financial or investment advice. They're just random thoughts in my head.
gm
MACRO - Somewhat of a benign day yesterday but certainly one in which we saw sustained macro strength. Equities ended the day about 1% higher on both SPX and NDQ while futures are up marginally this morning. Interest rates had a mini sell off yesterday but yields are back down again this morning which puts the curve at 449/431/418/434bps on 2/5/10/30yr points of the curve. Oil is basically unchanged. It’s been a pretty solid comeback in equities which now sees SPX like 6% off YTD lows. The next FOMC meeting is 1-2nd November which. After that we get payrolls on 4th November and the week after we get midterm elections 8th November and then right after that we get CPI again 10th November! So enjoy the lull while you can because have a pretty stacked calendar coming up that I’m sure is going to be nothing short of a volatile period.
CRYPTO - The weekend pumps we saw in crypto over the weekend mostly failed to hold but we do sit here towards the upper end of this recent range we’ve been struggling to break out of. BTC at 19.2k and ETH at 1350 are numbers we’re all too familiar with now if not slightly sick of. Last month’s inflation print and corresponding macro vol was not enough to materially move the needle in either direction and I’m not sure if next week will be any different but we can certainly hope. It’s difficult to really add much more than that here other than I would reiterate what I said yesterday I that it feels like to me there’s somewhat of a short unwind.
NFTs - Apes return to the top of the charts posting 361E of volume with the floor staying relatively stable around 75E still. Elsewhere volumes look benign but I would note a continual uptick in listings for Otherdeed, which has been under fire on the LooksRare platform after they changed certain reward incentives. Reddit NFTs continue to be the talk of the town, with “Spooky Season: poieeeyee x Reddit collectible avatars” rising to a floor of 0.43E on 720E total volume. That volume number looks low to me so not sure if I’m missing another platform where this stuff is trading. My 2c is that onboarding Reddit is undoubtedly bullish for NFTs and the sticiness of that community has every reason to mean these NFTs can do well. I would caveat that with there's a large amount of supply and the usual "if you FOMO/ape remember to class it as a gamble", it's always wise to be cautious, even more so in bear markets.
GL today!`
-OSF